3 ms·

This is problematic for a few reasons: 1) There are varying levels of infection and immunity, and we really don't know how that bell curve works in the populat

This is problematic for a few reasons: 1) There are varying levels of infection and immunity, and we really don't know how that bell curve works in the population at large. 2) We can't effectively test in order to objectively assess who is naturally protected. 3) From a public policy perspective, it's a total disaster: if we 'require' immunity, a unbelievably large portion of the population will opt to get COVID instead of the vaccine. This is the real kicker right here. If the population acted in any way reasonably, I think that some kind of antibody test, or even declaration from a doctor might work fine. But we are, as a general population, still in the illiterate dark ages. I spent a day at a family members house where he had his FB profile videos playing out loud - it was the most insane stuff I've ever heard, I thought it was satire, it was not. It was video after video of completely insane conspiracy theorists, most of them total nobodies but trying to gain an audience, extolling unbelievable things. My family member believes that he has access to special 'privileged information' (even though it's just random videos on Facebook) and he utterly will not believe anything that he hears on the news. The doctors on TV are all liars, the vaccine is a big scam. He's a 'Wolf' while the rest of us are 'Sheep'. Etc.. I would not have believed this new social phenomenon (it's new at least at this scale) until I witnessed it myself - fake information has turned a material portion of the population into zombies. 4) It's moot - the vaccine is safe and effective. So people can just take it and that's that. Conscientious objectors are fine, they just can't work in hospitals, at least for now.

LurkingPenguin 5y ago
> We can't effectively test in order to objectively assess who is naturally protected. There are over 43 million Americans who have already survived a lab-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. You don't need to test them. Their status can be verified just as easily as a person who has a CDC vaccination card. Oh but it's "protection" you want to talk about? The reality is that you can't measure real-world protection in any given individual with natural immunity or vaccine-based immunity. The vast majority of people who have been vaccinated don't test their antibody titers (ever, and over time) and even if they did, there are no validated models for correlating antibody titers to real-world protection. Antibodies aren't the end-all and be-all of immunity. Immunity is complex, and there are a variety of factors (memory T and B cell responses, your overall immune health, the viral loads you're exposed to, etc.) that determine how your body will respond to a pathogen. Moving away from family anecdotes, here's an actual case: https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4307460 https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4307460 A pilot in her 40s who received her second dose of Moderna in early August had a breakthrough infection in October. Data suggests that Moderna is the most effective vaccine and a person in her 40s is not in the age group (65+) where we see vaccine efficacy waning most quickly. So a person who got the most effective vaccine, who is healthy enough to be a commercial airline pilot, who is not 65+, and who was fully vaccinated for less than 2 months, when her antibody titers would be expected to be very high, can still catch a breakthrough case.

LurkingPenguin 5y ago

> We can't effectively test in order to objectively assess who is naturally protected. There are over 43 million Americans who have already survived a lab-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. You don't need to test them. Their status can be verified just as easily as a person who has a CDC vaccination card. Oh but it's "protection" you want to talk about? The reality is that you can't measure real-world protection in any given individual with natural immunity or vaccine-based immunity. The vast majority of people who have been vaccinated don't test their antibody titers (ever, and over time) and even if they did, there are no validated models for correlating antibody titers to real-world protection. Antibodies aren't the end-all and be-all of immunity. Immunity is complex, and there are a variety of factors (memory T and B cell responses, your overall immune health, the viral loads you're exposed to, etc.) that determine how your body will respond to a pathogen. Moving away from family anecdotes, here's an actual case: https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4307460 https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4307460 A pilot in her 40s who received her second dose of Moderna in early August had a breakthrough infection in October. Data suggests that Moderna is the most effective vaccine and a person in her 40s is not in the age group (65+) where we see vaccine efficacy waning most quickly. So a person who got the most effective vaccine, who is healthy enough to be a commercial airline pilot, who is not 65+, and who was fully vaccinated for less than 2 months, when her antibody titers would be expected to be very high, can still catch a breakthrough case.