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The earth's human population is not going to shrink. The population of some groups will shrink and others will increase. As secular societies are replaced by f

by rsj_hn 5y ago

The earth's human population is not going to shrink. The population of some groups will shrink and others will increase. As secular societies are replaced by fundamentalist societies, the result will not be the earth having fewer people, but rather secular liberal belief systems and policy preferences disappearing. Yes, you can prolong those policy preferences with a period of repression, but long term the future is not bright for either liberalism or modernism. Take a look at the transformation of Israeli politics between 1990 and 2020. 58% of those under the age of 19 are ultra-orthodox and 30% are orthodox. That's 88% orthodox or ultra-orthodox. Israel used to be a fairly secular state with an orthodox minority. It is very rapidly going to be an orthodox population with a secular minority. This is not about overall populations increasing or decreasing, it's about the future belonging to those groups that reproduce themselves.

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AnimalMuppet 5y ago
That depends. Can liberal belief systems convert the children of illiberal belief systems at an adequate rate? The approach that too many take these days, "We're self-evidently right, and if you can't see that you're so indoctrinated that you're blind"... that isn't going to cut it. Those with liberal beliefs have to do better than that, or they will lose. Note that "liberal" is defined in the classical way, belief in liberty. It doesn't have to do with political left vs. right. And those with the liberal belief system may need to battle illiberals on the left as well as on the right. And even you, when you say "you can prolong those belief systems with a period of repression", I wonder how liberal you actually are. No, you cannot prolong those belief systems with repression, because once you turn to repression, you don't believe in the liberal belief system any more. Also note that not all liberal belief systems are secular, and not all religious belief systems are either "fundamentalist" or illiberal.

by rsj_hn 5y ago

deleted 5y ago

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AnimalMuppet 5y ago

That depends. Can liberal belief systems convert the children of illiberal belief systems at an adequate rate? The approach that too many take these days, "We're self-evidently right, and if you can't see that you're so indoctrinated that you're blind"... that isn't going to cut it. Those with liberal beliefs have to do better than that, or they will lose. Note that "liberal" is defined in the classical way, belief in liberty. It doesn't have to do with political left vs. right. And those with the liberal belief system may need to battle illiberals on the left as well as on the right. And even you, when you say "you can prolong those belief systems with a period of repression", I wonder how liberal you actually are. No, you cannot prolong those belief systems with repression, because once you turn to repression, you don't believe in the liberal belief system any more. Also note that not all liberal belief systems are secular, and not all religious belief systems are either "fundamentalist" or illiberal.