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https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2021/09/29/ad945/1 https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/20... It's not surprisin

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2021/09/29/ad945/1 https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/20... It's not surprising as half (almost) the original vote went to the remain choice.

ivraatiems 5y ago
What's surprising is the shift towards negative opinion. There's been a massive change since June. Not everyone who voted remain necessarily thought it was going poorly.
- OJFord 5y ago
  Along those lines it also seems a bit open to interpretation to me - if you voted 'remain' and always thought and still think it's an awful idea, from what baseline do you answer 'how is it going'? Does 'going well' mean 'absolutely' well - 'better than remaining', or just relatively; 'better than I thought it could, but still worse than having remained'?
FatalLogic 5y ago
If you mean that people who voted to Remain in the EU will always say Brexit is going badly, then this series of surveys does not support that argument: "53 percent said it was going badly, a rise of 15 percentage points from June" edit: direct links to the survey results June 21: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2021/06/21/199fd/1 https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/20... Sept 29: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2021/09/29/ad945/1 https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/20...
- OJFord 5y ago
  But are they controlling for vote? (Or better for 'how would you vote now, assuming the EU Commission/Brexiting government goes on as you'd like'.) I assume this poll's just going to follow the news cycle, with different voters more inclined to respond accordingly.
  - FatalLogic 5y ago
    >But are they controlling for vote? They did ask. Click on the Politics tab above the survey results at YouGov But, in any case, a broadly-representative sample population will naturally reflect the original Brexit voting ratios, approximately (if YouGov can't even conduct a survey professionally, then we can stop wasting time discussing this, and ignore everything from them)
    - FridayoLeary 5y ago
      -(if YouGov can't even conduct a survey professionally, then we can stop wasting time discussing this, and ignore everything from them) Exactly! Since they messed up with Brexit and Trump i have been confidently ignoring every single poll that's emerged. I wonder what it would look like if our politicians did the same. It seems that the current government can only ever react to things.
      - FatalLogic 5y ago
        >Since they [YouGov] messed up with Brexit and Trump i have been confidently ignoring every single poll that's emerged. Please look at the last 4 YouGov polls in the week before the Brexit vote[0]. Two show a very slim majority for Leave, and two had a very slim majority for Remain. In the event, a very slim majority voted for Leave. Those polls were remarkably accurate for such a small sample size, and well within a reasonable margin of error (2-4 percentage points in that case). You're confidently choosing to ignore useful data because you will only accept perfect data. But that doesn't exist. [0] https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/ https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/
    - OJFord 5y ago
      > a broadly-representative sample population will naturally reflect the original Brexit voting ratios, approximately Yes but that's not what you want? Surely you want to remove the effect of that, have 50% who would vote each way, so that ideology is removed and the results are purely about 'how it's going'?

ivraatiems 5y ago

What's surprising is the shift towards negative opinion. There's been a massive change since June. Not everyone who voted remain necessarily thought it was going poorly.

OJFord 5y ago
Along those lines it also seems a bit open to interpretation to me - if you voted 'remain' and always thought and still think it's an awful idea, from what baseline do you answer 'how is it going'? Does 'going well' mean 'absolutely' well - 'better than remaining', or just relatively; 'better than I thought it could, but still worse than having remained'?

FatalLogic 5y ago

If you mean that people who voted to Remain in the EU will always say Brexit is going badly, then this series of surveys does not support that argument: "53 percent said it was going badly, a rise of 15 percentage points from June" edit: direct links to the survey results June 21: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2021/06/21/199fd/1 https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/20... Sept 29: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2021/09/29/ad945/1 https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/20...

OJFord 5y ago
But are they controlling for vote? (Or better for 'how would you vote now, assuming the EU Commission/Brexiting government goes on as you'd like'.) I assume this poll's just going to follow the news cycle, with different voters more inclined to respond accordingly.
- FatalLogic 5y ago
  >But are they controlling for vote? They did ask. Click on the Politics tab above the survey results at YouGov But, in any case, a broadly-representative sample population will naturally reflect the original Brexit voting ratios, approximately (if YouGov can't even conduct a survey professionally, then we can stop wasting time discussing this, and ignore everything from them)
  - FridayoLeary 5y ago
    -(if YouGov can't even conduct a survey professionally, then we can stop wasting time discussing this, and ignore everything from them) Exactly! Since they messed up with Brexit and Trump i have been confidently ignoring every single poll that's emerged. I wonder what it would look like if our politicians did the same. It seems that the current government can only ever react to things.
    - FatalLogic 5y ago
      >Since they [YouGov] messed up with Brexit and Trump i have been confidently ignoring every single poll that's emerged. Please look at the last 4 YouGov polls in the week before the Brexit vote[0]. Two show a very slim majority for Leave, and two had a very slim majority for Remain. In the event, a very slim majority voted for Leave. Those polls were remarkably accurate for such a small sample size, and well within a reasonable margin of error (2-4 percentage points in that case). You're confidently choosing to ignore useful data because you will only accept perfect data. But that doesn't exist. [0] https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/ https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/
  - OJFord 5y ago
    > a broadly-representative sample population will naturally reflect the original Brexit voting ratios, approximately Yes but that's not what you want? Surely you want to remove the effect of that, have 50% who would vote each way, so that ideology is removed and the results are purely about 'how it's going'?