4 ms·
To a first order effect, stopping production would decrease supply, increasing price, and therefore decreasing demand and therefore overall oil usage, shifting
by cecilpl2 5y ago
To a first order effect, stopping production would decrease supply, increasing price, and therefore decreasing demand and therefore overall oil usage, shifting some energy to alternative sources.
Of course second order effects might dwarf that, like the fact that increasing prices would incentivize oil extraction in currently unprofitable locations. That extraction may or may not be more carbon-intensive than Norway's (though probably more if it's currently unprofitable).
It sounds punchy to say "Norway should stop extracting oil" as much as it does to say "It doesn't matter whether they do or not since someone else will", but the reality is much more complex than either of those simplistic zeroth-order approximations.
- Retric 5y agoInfrastructure takes time to build. A short term price hike in oil costs isn’t going to change how many cars Tesla can manufacture tomorrow. Near term you can build up infrastructure to extract more oil from the same well faster than you can build a new car factory. The only real change from such a policy is how quickly wells will run dry, but I hope we can abandon oil long before running out is a serious concern.
- mikewave 5y agoPrecisely. If oil prices get high enough, the Canadian oil sands will begin to be a profitable operation again, and will scale back up to take advantage. At this point, while we're still weaning off of oil - for probably the next 50 years - we need the lowest carbon, least cannibalistic sources of it possible.