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As a Norwegian I totally agree with you. It is not just unethical, but stupid to invest so much in searching for new old fields. When demand for oil drops, Norw

As a Norwegian I totally agree with you. It is not just unethical, but stupid to invest so much in searching for new old fields. When demand for oil drops, Norway could have a Kodak moment.

jalk 5y ago
How large is the Oil Fund these days (after Corona spending) 1 trillion USD or something like that - you'll be fine
- magicalhippo 5y ago
  > How large is the Oil Fund these days They got a "live" counter here[1], so yeah around 1.3 trillion USD give or take. Estimates for corona spending is around 80 billion USD[2]. [1]: https://www.nbim.no/en/ https://www.nbim.no/en/ [2]: https://www.nettavisen.no/okonomi/regjeringen-advarer-oljefondet-er-i-praksis-brukt-opp/s/12-95-3424029060 https://www.nettavisen.no/okonomi/regjeringen-advarer-oljefo...
  - bellyfullofbac 5y ago
    Geezus, must be nice to have that kind of rainy day fund. Grossly over-simplifed: "Shut down the economy? Oh well, here's 80 billion dollars to keep everyone fed and warm."
    - eptcyka 5y ago
      A country can't sustain itself on cash alone. Human capital and infrastructure is vital.
    - ars 5y ago
      For a few years. But divide that fund by the population and it suddenly doesn't seem as much. Human capital is far more valuable, but most of the industrial knowledge of Norway is in energy production.
      - atq2119 5y ago
        Energy production isn't going to go away.
- jonsen 5y ago
  If the world remains able and willing to pay it back. It's mostly invested abroad.
r00fus 5y ago
Norway has a sovereign wealth fund (valuation: 1.4T in USD) that is setup specifically for this eventuality. Many large oil exporting countries know the good times won't last, and are planning for it.
- ars 5y ago
  > Norway has a sovereign wealth fund (valuation: 1.4T in USD) that is setup specifically for this eventuality. That's not much - $25K per person over 10 years, and with an average income of $70K per person, and something like half of their economy is energy (most if not all social programs are funded from energy production). If oil were to stop tomorrow, they'd have around 10 years before the money runs out. (Maybe a bit longer since kids don't earn money.) And if they have to replace all the social funding, they'd have even less time. Norway is relying on slow reduction in demand, and time to transition their economy. Will they have it? It's far from certain. I feel like Norwegians rely too much on this fund to save themselves, rather than transitioning away from oil now.
  - drexlspivey 5y ago
    it’s actually $250k per person
    - ars 5y ago
      It's $25K "over 10 years" - they are not going to spend all of it in a single year because then there would be nothing left.
  - r00fus 5y ago
    There are lots of pushes to move the fund into carbon-neutral or negative investments, which would likely grow as the fossil fuel economy swan song starts. However, I find it a bit disingenuous to chide Norway which is doing far better than much larger countries like the UK, US or Germany in transitioning to renewables. I am not worried for Norway (though when the North Atlantic jetbtream shifts they will likely suffer) - I'm far more worried for the poor and marginalized peoples - they will suffer far more. It's no surprise that thought leaders are worried about climate change impacts. Some will perversely benefit (politicians who are anti-immigration will gain populartiy because climate migrations are clearly defined by US defense dept as a likely result from climate change). Others may benefit by providing mitigating solutions to climate change itself that alter economies.
makeitdouble 5y ago
As I see it, Kodak saw the writing on the wall pretty early, started R&D for digital camera ahead of the pack, and actually built the first working digital camera we know of. But it failed to put as much weight behind the new product line as it did on the money making ones. That's basically a text book example of the "strategy tax", which isn't about stopping profit from existing products, but to let new concepts cannibalise legacy products. In which way do you see Norway hitting the brakes on new technology and future trends to protect the oil business ?

As a Norwegian I totally agree with you. It is not just unethical, but stupid to invest so much in searching for new old fields. When demand for oil drops, Norway could have a Kodak moment.

jalk 5y ago

How large is the Oil Fund these days (after Corona spending) 1 trillion USD or something like that - you'll be fine

magicalhippo 5y ago
> How large is the Oil Fund these days They got a "live" counter here[1], so yeah around 1.3 trillion USD give or take. Estimates for corona spending is around 80 billion USD[2]. [1]: https://www.nbim.no/en/ https://www.nbim.no/en/ [2]: https://www.nettavisen.no/okonomi/regjeringen-advarer-oljefondet-er-i-praksis-brukt-opp/s/12-95-3424029060 https://www.nettavisen.no/okonomi/regjeringen-advarer-oljefo...
- bellyfullofbac 5y ago
  Geezus, must be nice to have that kind of rainy day fund. Grossly over-simplifed: "Shut down the economy? Oh well, here's 80 billion dollars to keep everyone fed and warm."
  - eptcyka 5y ago
    A country can't sustain itself on cash alone. Human capital and infrastructure is vital.
  - ars 5y ago
    For a few years. But divide that fund by the population and it suddenly doesn't seem as much. Human capital is far more valuable, but most of the industrial knowledge of Norway is in energy production.
    - atq2119 5y ago
      Energy production isn't going to go away.
jonsen 5y ago
If the world remains able and willing to pay it back. It's mostly invested abroad.

r00fus 5y ago

Norway has a sovereign wealth fund (valuation: 1.4T in USD) that is setup specifically for this eventuality. Many large oil exporting countries know the good times won't last, and are planning for it.

ars 5y ago
> Norway has a sovereign wealth fund (valuation: 1.4T in USD) that is setup specifically for this eventuality. That's not much - $25K per person over 10 years, and with an average income of $70K per person, and something like half of their economy is energy (most if not all social programs are funded from energy production). If oil were to stop tomorrow, they'd have around 10 years before the money runs out. (Maybe a bit longer since kids don't earn money.) And if they have to replace all the social funding, they'd have even less time. Norway is relying on slow reduction in demand, and time to transition their economy. Will they have it? It's far from certain. I feel like Norwegians rely too much on this fund to save themselves, rather than transitioning away from oil now.
- drexlspivey 5y ago
  it’s actually $250k per person
  - ars 5y ago
    It's $25K "over 10 years" - they are not going to spend all of it in a single year because then there would be nothing left.
- r00fus 5y ago
  There are lots of pushes to move the fund into carbon-neutral or negative investments, which would likely grow as the fossil fuel economy swan song starts. However, I find it a bit disingenuous to chide Norway which is doing far better than much larger countries like the UK, US or Germany in transitioning to renewables. I am not worried for Norway (though when the North Atlantic jetbtream shifts they will likely suffer) - I'm far more worried for the poor and marginalized peoples - they will suffer far more. It's no surprise that thought leaders are worried about climate change impacts. Some will perversely benefit (politicians who are anti-immigration will gain populartiy because climate migrations are clearly defined by US defense dept as a likely result from climate change). Others may benefit by providing mitigating solutions to climate change itself that alter economies.

makeitdouble 5y ago

As I see it, Kodak saw the writing on the wall pretty early, started R&D for digital camera ahead of the pack, and actually built the first working digital camera we know of. But it failed to put as much weight behind the new product line as it did on the money making ones. That's basically a text book example of the "strategy tax", which isn't about stopping profit from existing products, but to let new concepts cannibalise legacy products. In which way do you see Norway hitting the brakes on new technology and future trends to protect the oil business ?