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The valuation implies that there is 1.5% probability of this company becoming BP with a market cap of 100B and bringing 10B in profits per year. That is with a
by whatever1 5y ago
The valuation implies that there is 1.5% probability of this company becoming BP with a market cap of 100B and bringing 10B in profits per year.
That is with a technology that currently is not working, and is not expected to work in useful scale for decades.
- solveit 5y agoOr a 0.15% probability of becoming 10x bigger. For things like this, essentially all the expected value is in the very long tail. I won't be buying shares any time soon, but more power to those who do.