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I don't know if Evergrande is the beginning, or the huge amount of Chinese local government debt[1], but I am more concerned about Variable Interest Entities [
by OrvalWintermute 5y ago
I don't know if Evergrande is the beginning, or the huge amount of Chinese local government debt[1], but I am more concerned about Variable Interest Entities [2]
So, when these Chinese firms are trading on US exchanges, they aren't trading in the actual stock, but instead, the VIE. It will only take China outlawing VIEs to wipe them out. While there is an active debate about that, there are many reasons why it would be in the Chinese interest to do so, namely, the use of VIEs as a means for Chinese expats to liberate cash from China, and, China's reduced control of company VIEs. During wartime, or as a lever, this could be fully weaponized.
Due to the VIE structure and presence on exchanges, they are much more likely to be included in ETFs. Talk about a potential for huge losses!
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-29/china-hidden-local-government-debt-is-half-of-gdp-goldman-says https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-29/china-hid...
[2] https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealth-management/chief-investment-office/market-insights/house-view/daily/2021/latest-06082021.html https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealth-management/chief-invest...