While the article is rather low quality in and of itself, it still manages to point out: > Before claiming that the simulation above is reliable, I must expose

While the article is rather low quality in and of itself, it still manages to point out: > Before claiming that the simulation above is reliable, I must expose a few things you’ll need to pay attention to when using a Monte Carlo Simulation to make forecasts: > (A) The quality of the inputs upon which your simulations depend. > (B) The consistency and predictability of your team. > (C) The need to re-forecast. > (D) The size of your work packages. Among those, I am not exactly sure what the author is referring to with (C). However, problems arise most often when none of A, B, and D is controlled by the person being asked to estimate. Now, if you can control A, B, and D, YOU DO NOT NEED TO RUN MONTE CARLO. You'll be able to split the work and guess within 10 - 20% just by using rules of thumb. If you cannot control A, B, and D, running Monte Carlo will not help you. I say this as a person who's been doing Monte Carlo since the late 80s.