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Monte Carlo simulations are invaluable when it comes to creating tissue line odds. For one of my horse racing projects, I can come up with a range of how an ind
by vgeek 5y ago
Monte Carlo simulations are invaluable when it comes to creating tissue line odds. For one of my horse racing projects, I can come up with a range of how an individual horse is likely to perform-- which isn't much use unless compared against the others in the race with a frequency component (e.g., this horse will likely be the best only 10% of the time-- but the pools are offering 15-1 odds, so it is +EV). On modest hardware, I can run thousands of race simulations and somewhat effectively determine the likelihood of a given horse winning.