I don't think it's that deterministic. Facing a behemoth like the two parties head-on is impossible. You can't have as much coverage as them as a starting poin

I don't think it's that deterministic. Facing a behemoth like the two parties head-on is impossible. You can't have as much coverage as them as a starting point. OTOH, you also don't have to stay in their paradigm or split your efforts so widely. OTOH, elect three senators or nine mayors would, in itself, represent a major victory and real political power.