4 ms·
I used this method for a while on one of my teams. It was useful and helped provide more accurate estimates. Some tips I have for people interested: * Get abo
by strife25 5y ago
I used this method for a while on one of my teams. It was useful and helped provide more accurate estimates.
Some tips I have for people interested:
* Get about two months of velocity data in place first.
* Run the simulation on a regular basis. Update your estimates every week/sprint.
* It helps to have individual work units be "sized" as consistent as you can. (E.g. each ticket is 2-3 days, a consistent pointing system, etc.) It's ok if anomalies happen from time to time.
* Dates will get more accurate the further you get into a project.
Some things I've learned from doing this exercise:
* When work units are sized to be 2-3 days of effort, engineers complete about 4 units/wk on average.
* Don't shoot for the perfect estimate at the start of a project. Plan as much scope as you know and enough to get started.
* As new scope is found, update your project plan and estimates.
- markmaglana 5y agoIf you already have ~2 months worth of data, why not just use that to plot a distribution curve? Seems to me that the monte carlo simulation that the article describes is really just used to "guess" the likely distribution curve. Seems unnecessary if you already have ~2 months worth of data.