It's fascinating how poor this area currently is. We are able to capture so many tiny, horrifying details about engagement and optimise shit out of ad clicking

It's fascinating how poor this area currently is. We are able to capture so many tiny, horrifying details about engagement and optimise shit out of ad clicking but we don't do basic things like using calendar or task dependency for internal delivery estimation. Looking at what we're already doing on outside, improvements inside seem trivial. Good estimator should know that estimation spanning holiday season will be impacted. It should know serial dependency will span wider in time. It should know that set of unevenly distributed tasks (A-many + B-not-many) for small-team-A and larger-team-B will flow slower in time than distribution matching weighted max flow for team A and B. It should know multiple dependency on team X will have lower flow because they're maxed out. It seems to me that monte carlo projection on timeline from inputs we already have mapped onto graph is really not a rocket science and it should have been solved problem by now. But it's not. Weird.