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> without any impact on inflation This seems like quite the assertion. Anyone want to explain how minting $1 trillion will definitely not have any impact on in

> without any impact on inflation This seems like quite the assertion. Anyone want to explain how minting $1 trillion will definitely not have any impact on inflation?

horsawlarway 5y ago
I'd assume the thought is that the coin is not fungible in any meaningful way. It's not going to enter the monetary supply, it's more of a loophole to avoid debt ceilings. Now whether avoiding debt ceilings has an impact on inflation is up for debate (my vote is that it will, but I also don't like the debt ceiling in the first place)
- plutonorm 5y ago
  But it erodes faith in the currency and that is, ultimately, what gives it value.
  - djur 5y ago
    A debt default or a sudden halt of US government spending, both resulting in economic collapse, would both be much more effective at eroding faith in the value of the US dollar.
  - horsawlarway 5y ago
    sure, but as an outsider looking in - the thing that erodes my faith in the currency is not the minting of a trillion dollar coin, it's the complete disfunction of governance that leads to a situation where this is even considered. And the harm is already done on that front. This is relatively low impact compared to other shenanigans.
djur 5y ago
It won't enter the money supply. If there's an effect on inflation, it will be from the borrowing and spending (already authorized by Congress) that the $1 trillion coin allows to proceed.
- syshum 5y ago
  ummm no if that were the case why not just make a 1000 Trillion Coin, and pay off all the debt for all of time Because we both know that yes that money will enter the money supply, just not directly.
  - horsawlarway 5y ago
    > Because we both know that yes that money will enter the money supply, just not directly. Sure, but it's going to do it through the borrowing/lending we presume will be allowed by congress (raising the debt ceiling) eventually anyways. This just allows that to happen regardless. This (to me) is not so much a financial tool as a political bludgeon to work around that fact that the US congress is essentially useless at the moment. I still don't think it's a good idea, but bad ideas start seeming like good ideas if the people making the rules are utterly useless (see: congress).
  - Kranar 5y ago
    The subtle detail is that making the 1000 Trillion Coin itself has no effect on inflation. However if it's used to pay off the debt, then that is what produces inflation. The reason this distinction matters is that the President has the authority to create the trillion dollar coin, but does not have the authority to spend it. All he can do is grant permission to another authority to borrow against that coin, it's that other authority (the Federal Reserve) that would in turn affect inflation. The argument is that since the Federal Reserve is going to end up doing that anyways, one way or another, that this trillion dollar coin itself really isn't the cause of any inflation to begin with; it's basically nothing more than a formality.
  - djur 5y ago
    It isn't being used to pay off the debt. That would be inflationary. It's being used to back the issuance of further debt, and in that sense it's a complete accounting trick. If we minted a quadrillion dollar coin for this purpose it would be equivalent to abolishing the debt limit.
hguant 5y ago
It doesn't have any impact on inflation beyond what's already happening, I think is a better way of phrasing things. The coin doesn't go into circulation, it just lets the member banks of the Federal Reserve have an asset (dollars) to borrow against and fund their current operations. This does have an impact on inflation, but it's not the same as dumping USD one trillion in bills into general circulation.
andrewla 5y ago
Because none of it would enter the economy. To summarize -- Congress has authorized a certain amount of spending, but they have also passed a law limiting the amount of money that the Treasury department can borrow. So ... how is the executive supposed to pay the bills? tl;dr: Creating the trillion dollar coin does not commit to any spending not already authorized by Congress.
- syshum 5y ago
  The debt limit has always been backdoor spending cap, Congress curbs their spending in part because they know they are going to have to fight over the debt limit If there is in engineered way to create no spending limits for congress that congress will not spend 100% of that is moronically naive If they make a 10 Trillion coin, congress will pass a spending measure to spend all 10 Trillion to believe other wise is to be ignorant of history to a level that I don't believe is fathomable This gimmick WILL CAUSE INFLATION. you can bank on that.
  - andrewla 5y ago
    You're talking second order effects, and I do agree with you on that. But Congress has authorized the spending. And it is against the law (as passed by congress) for the executive to _not spend_ money that has been appropriated. And it is illegal for the executive to borrow money to achieve those spending goals. I think someone called it a trilemma -- Congress has passed a rock-paper-scissors law, and left no legal action that can be taken by the executive. Except that there's a loophole that they can mint the coin. Congress can close that loophole if they want! But right now it exists. If Congress wants to control spending they should control spending, not force the executive branch to choose which law to break because they are in contradiction.
  - horsawlarway 5y ago
    > The debt limit has always been backdoor spending cap, Congress curbs their spending in part because they know they are going to have to fight over the debt limit This seems to be the premise of a lot of later conclusions you're making, but it's basically wrong: Congress can print money at will. The debt ceiling is not the reason we don't do that. Reputation and inflation mostly are.
panarky 5y ago
Treasury mints the coin. Treasury trades the coin to the Fed for existing bonds the Fed already owns. Treasury extinguishes the bonds. Fed's balance sheet is unchanged, minus a trillion of bonds, plus a trillion of coin. Treasury's balance sheet is unchanged. Zero new money in circulation.

> without any impact on inflation This seems like quite the assertion. Anyone want to explain how minting $1 trillion will definitely not have any impact on inflation?

horsawlarway 5y ago

I'd assume the thought is that the coin is not fungible in any meaningful way. It's not going to enter the monetary supply, it's more of a loophole to avoid debt ceilings. Now whether avoiding debt ceilings has an impact on inflation is up for debate (my vote is that it will, but I also don't like the debt ceiling in the first place)

plutonorm 5y ago
But it erodes faith in the currency and that is, ultimately, what gives it value.
- djur 5y ago
  A debt default or a sudden halt of US government spending, both resulting in economic collapse, would both be much more effective at eroding faith in the value of the US dollar.
- horsawlarway 5y ago
  sure, but as an outsider looking in - the thing that erodes my faith in the currency is not the minting of a trillion dollar coin, it's the complete disfunction of governance that leads to a situation where this is even considered. And the harm is already done on that front. This is relatively low impact compared to other shenanigans.

djur 5y ago

It won't enter the money supply. If there's an effect on inflation, it will be from the borrowing and spending (already authorized by Congress) that the $1 trillion coin allows to proceed.

syshum 5y ago
ummm no if that were the case why not just make a 1000 Trillion Coin, and pay off all the debt for all of time Because we both know that yes that money will enter the money supply, just not directly.
- horsawlarway 5y ago
  > Because we both know that yes that money will enter the money supply, just not directly. Sure, but it's going to do it through the borrowing/lending we presume will be allowed by congress (raising the debt ceiling) eventually anyways. This just allows that to happen regardless. This (to me) is not so much a financial tool as a political bludgeon to work around that fact that the US congress is essentially useless at the moment. I still don't think it's a good idea, but bad ideas start seeming like good ideas if the people making the rules are utterly useless (see: congress).
- Kranar 5y ago
  The subtle detail is that making the 1000 Trillion Coin itself has no effect on inflation. However if it's used to pay off the debt, then that is what produces inflation. The reason this distinction matters is that the President has the authority to create the trillion dollar coin, but does not have the authority to spend it. All he can do is grant permission to another authority to borrow against that coin, it's that other authority (the Federal Reserve) that would in turn affect inflation. The argument is that since the Federal Reserve is going to end up doing that anyways, one way or another, that this trillion dollar coin itself really isn't the cause of any inflation to begin with; it's basically nothing more than a formality.
- djur 5y ago
  It isn't being used to pay off the debt. That would be inflationary. It's being used to back the issuance of further debt, and in that sense it's a complete accounting trick. If we minted a quadrillion dollar coin for this purpose it would be equivalent to abolishing the debt limit.

hguant 5y ago

It doesn't have any impact on inflation beyond what's already happening, I think is a better way of phrasing things. The coin doesn't go into circulation, it just lets the member banks of the Federal Reserve have an asset (dollars) to borrow against and fund their current operations. This does have an impact on inflation, but it's not the same as dumping USD one trillion in bills into general circulation.

andrewla 5y ago

Because none of it would enter the economy. To summarize -- Congress has authorized a certain amount of spending, but they have also passed a law limiting the amount of money that the Treasury department can borrow. So ... how is the executive supposed to pay the bills? tl;dr: Creating the trillion dollar coin does not commit to any spending not already authorized by Congress.

syshum 5y ago
The debt limit has always been backdoor spending cap, Congress curbs their spending in part because they know they are going to have to fight over the debt limit If there is in engineered way to create no spending limits for congress that congress will not spend 100% of that is moronically naive If they make a 10 Trillion coin, congress will pass a spending measure to spend all 10 Trillion to believe other wise is to be ignorant of history to a level that I don't believe is fathomable This gimmick WILL CAUSE INFLATION. you can bank on that.
- andrewla 5y ago
  You're talking second order effects, and I do agree with you on that. But Congress has authorized the spending. And it is against the law (as passed by congress) for the executive to _not spend_ money that has been appropriated. And it is illegal for the executive to borrow money to achieve those spending goals. I think someone called it a trilemma -- Congress has passed a rock-paper-scissors law, and left no legal action that can be taken by the executive. Except that there's a loophole that they can mint the coin. Congress can close that loophole if they want! But right now it exists. If Congress wants to control spending they should control spending, not force the executive branch to choose which law to break because they are in contradiction.
- horsawlarway 5y ago
  > The debt limit has always been backdoor spending cap, Congress curbs their spending in part because they know they are going to have to fight over the debt limit This seems to be the premise of a lot of later conclusions you're making, but it's basically wrong: Congress can print money at will. The debt ceiling is not the reason we don't do that. Reputation and inflation mostly are.

panarky 5y ago

Treasury mints the coin. Treasury trades the coin to the Fed for existing bonds the Fed already owns. Treasury extinguishes the bonds. Fed's balance sheet is unchanged, minus a trillion of bonds, plus a trillion of coin. Treasury's balance sheet is unchanged. Zero new money in circulation.