4 ms·

Things can still be "going downhill" while some things are better than they've ever been in human history. Frame of reference is a big thing that is almost neve

by LocalH 5y ago

Things can still be "going downhill" while some things are better than they've ever been in human history. Frame of reference is a big thing that is almost never discussed - one's perception of how "bad" things are can only be informed by what one has already experienced, and otherwise influenced by the media that is plopped in front of us (in a kind of feedback loop). Your "bad" is not the same as my "bad" and that is true for everyone. A certain amount of "bad" experience is necessary in this world, in order to truly appreciate the "good", when you look at it. In that sense, a pure utopia would actually be a bad thing in the whole of human existence.

simonh 5y ago
I simply don't believe that a preponderance of the things we value in our society are actually declining. From the article: "In his new book, On Decline: Stagnation, Nostalgia and Why Every Year is the Worst One Ever, Potter argues that the West's two centuries of progress and prosperity — underpinned by liberal democracy, plentiful energy and natural resources, and economic growth — has ground to a halt and is now even going backwards." None of those things - technological progress, prosperity, access to democracy, economic growth - are actually declining. Take out the last 2 years of the pandemic, and global metrics on all these fronts have been making robust advances. Global poverty in particular has undergone dramatic falls as hundreds of millions of people in China and across South East Asia left behind grinding poverty and joined the global middle class. Even Africa, which always has problems in many areas, has actually been doing pretty well by historical standards. "The West" is doing fine as well, a few slow patches and setbacks sure but nothing fundamental. All the things weighing on people's minds in the last few years - Brexit, Trump, immigration, even Islamic terrorism - are just annoyances. Relative to actual tangible improvements in most people's lives they're just unfortunate speed bumps. They don't actually move the needle at a civilizational level.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- mdp2021 5y ago
  Then do not consider trends and consider the state of affairs: is it satisfactory for you? Those «improvements in most people's lives» to you make bestialities disappear? You have a different set of values than others. If some of the things implicit in your list do not «move the needle at a civilizational level» (actually, they do), it is because they reveal a situation which already positions the needle some of us judge at an unfortunate level. Though they may not be declining (they are), they remain in a dire state (to other's evaluation).
  - simonh 5y ago
    Of _course_ the state of affairs today is not satisfactory. There are many ways we could improve the world, or Western Civilization. That's a completely different question. We face several serious challenges to our civilization in the coming decades, no question. I don't even know if we will overcome them, but if we don't then out civilization will be in decline, if we do overcome them then it won't.
- bllguo 5y ago
  it's clearly talking about the decline of Western civilization, so it's quite bold to take credit for the successes of the alternatives the West is hellbent on destroying
- tuatoru 5y ago
  Access to democracy is declining in practical terms. This is one of the main reasons that it costs so much to build public infrastructure like high-speed rail or a new tunnel under the Hudson, and why the government is not doing enough on climate change despite the results of surveys, for instance. A minority can veto actions that would benefit everyone else.
mdp2021 5y ago
> A certain amount of "bad" experience Sorry, but certainly not: just the implicit awareness of having avoided bad experiences is sufficient. Intelligence is the ability to entail consequences out of events not experienced (Prof. Patrick Winston) - you just need intelligence. One certainly does not need to catch fire while being run over by a steamroller, to appreciate carrying on one's own business. If another does, their issue - but it's an issue.
- LocalH 5y ago
  There can be a very important subjective difference between close calls and actual bad experience. As well, it’s quite nuanced, even such a a close call can still be classed as a net “bad” experience, even if the really bad thing didn’t actually happen.
- dredmorbius 5y ago
  Yes, there's the difference between direct and second-hand knowledge. At the same time, one must acknowledge that there is a history, whether living, oral, written, archaeological, geological, or whatevs, of the past. There is no record of what will happen in the future. It is the one remaining terra incognita.
philwelch 5y ago
> Frame of reference is a big thing that is almost never discussed - one's perception of how "bad" things are can only be informed by what one has already experienced, and otherwise influenced by the media that is plopped in front of us (in a kind of feedback loop). Your "bad" is not the same as my "bad" and that is true for everyone. This can work both ways. As the past is increasingly forgotten, the conditions of the present are more and more normalized. For instance, how many people actually remember what airline flights were like before the TSA? There are fewer of them every year.

by LocalH 5y ago

simonh 5y ago

I simply don't believe that a preponderance of the things we value in our society are actually declining. From the article: "In his new book, On Decline: Stagnation, Nostalgia and Why Every Year is the Worst One Ever, Potter argues that the West's two centuries of progress and prosperity — underpinned by liberal democracy, plentiful energy and natural resources, and economic growth — has ground to a halt and is now even going backwards." None of those things - technological progress, prosperity, access to democracy, economic growth - are actually declining. Take out the last 2 years of the pandemic, and global metrics on all these fronts have been making robust advances. Global poverty in particular has undergone dramatic falls as hundreds of millions of people in China and across South East Asia left behind grinding poverty and joined the global middle class. Even Africa, which always has problems in many areas, has actually been doing pretty well by historical standards. "The West" is doing fine as well, a few slow patches and setbacks sure but nothing fundamental. All the things weighing on people's minds in the last few years - Brexit, Trump, immigration, even Islamic terrorism - are just annoyances. Relative to actual tangible improvements in most people's lives they're just unfortunate speed bumps. They don't actually move the needle at a civilizational level.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
mdp2021 5y ago
Then do not consider trends and consider the state of affairs: is it satisfactory for you? Those «improvements in most people's lives» to you make bestialities disappear? You have a different set of values than others. If some of the things implicit in your list do not «move the needle at a civilizational level» (actually, they do), it is because they reveal a situation which already positions the needle some of us judge at an unfortunate level. Though they may not be declining (they are), they remain in a dire state (to other's evaluation).
- simonh 5y ago
  Of _course_ the state of affairs today is not satisfactory. There are many ways we could improve the world, or Western Civilization. That's a completely different question. We face several serious challenges to our civilization in the coming decades, no question. I don't even know if we will overcome them, but if we don't then out civilization will be in decline, if we do overcome them then it won't.
bllguo 5y ago
it's clearly talking about the decline of Western civilization, so it's quite bold to take credit for the successes of the alternatives the West is hellbent on destroying
tuatoru 5y ago
Access to democracy is declining in practical terms. This is one of the main reasons that it costs so much to build public infrastructure like high-speed rail or a new tunnel under the Hudson, and why the government is not doing enough on climate change despite the results of surveys, for instance. A minority can veto actions that would benefit everyone else.

mdp2021 5y ago

> A certain amount of "bad" experience Sorry, but certainly not: just the implicit awareness of having avoided bad experiences is sufficient. Intelligence is the ability to entail consequences out of events not experienced (Prof. Patrick Winston) - you just need intelligence. One certainly does not need to catch fire while being run over by a steamroller, to appreciate carrying on one's own business. If another does, their issue - but it's an issue.

LocalH 5y ago
There can be a very important subjective difference between close calls and actual bad experience. As well, it’s quite nuanced, even such a a close call can still be classed as a net “bad” experience, even if the really bad thing didn’t actually happen.
dredmorbius 5y ago
Yes, there's the difference between direct and second-hand knowledge. At the same time, one must acknowledge that there is a history, whether living, oral, written, archaeological, geological, or whatevs, of the past. There is no record of what will happen in the future. It is the one remaining terra incognita.

philwelch 5y ago

> Frame of reference is a big thing that is almost never discussed - one's perception of how "bad" things are can only be informed by what one has already experienced, and otherwise influenced by the media that is plopped in front of us (in a kind of feedback loop). Your "bad" is not the same as my "bad" and that is true for everyone. This can work both ways. As the past is increasingly forgotten, the conditions of the present are more and more normalized. For instance, how many people actually remember what airline flights were like before the TSA? There are fewer of them every year.