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There would be war over it.

slimebot 5y ago
For sure. Yet I'm not convinced America can take that too far. So I wonder if it is willing/wanting to lose the Silicon factories, and cause a giant technological reset China would be at a massive disadvantage if it won Taiwan and lost the chip factories. That really would be a massive cold war, then.
- GravitasFailure 5y ago
  Considering how important Taiwan's fabs are to the US it seems unlikely the US would turn a blind eye to the attack, and an escalation like that would signal further threats to Korea, Japan, and Australia.
wrycoder 5y ago
1. If Taiwan loses, the fabs will be scuttled. 2. If China loses, they will bomb the fabs on the way out. 3.
- triactual 5y ago
  Number three is run away profit for every other fab in the world. Like the fabs in hard-to-bomb parts of the US. I realize they are not at the level of TSMC but that’s because they have not had to get to that level. They will.
rasz 5y ago
Line in Ukraine with extensive defense warranties? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Securit...
- jollybean 5y ago
  Crimea has no value to anyone, it's a sparsely populated barely industrialized island and 1/2 the population is Russian anyhow. I don't think there will be war over Taiwan, because if it was an effective Chinese invasion - there is nothing anyone could do about it. If China takes the Island, then they will keep it, not even the US could displace them without incredible force of power. If the US was involved in the fight and US took casualties i.e. downed fighters/bombers, or worse, a ship sunk, then the US will extract blood for that in other ways, notably, I can see the US and allies pushing China out out of the S. China Sea as a form of retaliation because it's militarily plausible. But it would take nuclear war for anyone to push China off of Taiwan if they secured it and were well dug in and nobody's going to do that.
  - pphysch 5y ago
    Crimea has significant (defensive) strategic value to Russia, not unlike Taiwan for China or Cuba for USA. They really don't want a hostile power putting missile silos or aircraft carriers there.

For sure. Yet I'm not convinced America can take that too far. So I wonder if it is willing/wanting to lose the Silicon factories, and cause a giant technological reset China would be at a massive disadvantage if it won Taiwan and lost the chip factories. That really would be a massive cold war, then.

GravitasFailure 5y ago
Considering how important Taiwan's fabs are to the US it seems unlikely the US would turn a blind eye to the attack, and an escalation like that would signal further threats to Korea, Japan, and Australia.

wrycoder 5y ago

1. If Taiwan loses, the fabs will be scuttled. 2. If China loses, they will bomb the fabs on the way out. 3.

triactual 5y ago
Number three is run away profit for every other fab in the world. Like the fabs in hard-to-bomb parts of the US. I realize they are not at the level of TSMC but that’s because they have not had to get to that level. They will.

rasz 5y ago

Line in Ukraine with extensive defense warranties? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Securit...

jollybean 5y ago
Crimea has no value to anyone, it's a sparsely populated barely industrialized island and 1/2 the population is Russian anyhow. I don't think there will be war over Taiwan, because if it was an effective Chinese invasion - there is nothing anyone could do about it. If China takes the Island, then they will keep it, not even the US could displace them without incredible force of power. If the US was involved in the fight and US took casualties i.e. downed fighters/bombers, or worse, a ship sunk, then the US will extract blood for that in other ways, notably, I can see the US and allies pushing China out out of the S. China Sea as a form of retaliation because it's militarily plausible. But it would take nuclear war for anyone to push China off of Taiwan if they secured it and were well dug in and nobody's going to do that.
- pphysch 5y ago
  Crimea has significant (defensive) strategic value to Russia, not unlike Taiwan for China or Cuba for USA. They really don't want a hostile power putting missile silos or aircraft carriers there.