4 ms·

Taiwan preparing for possible war with China

16 points by hncurious 5y ago

readonthegoapp 5y ago
Are they really? I guess technically they might be - it seems at least one person there says they are - but I doubt the entire population of Taiwan wants to commit mass suicide. And Australia and the US and Japan and others are not going to step up to defend Taiwan because China, unlike Iraq, and Afghanistan, and most recent US foes, can actually fight back. And China would likely win a war anywhere near China's sphere of influence, and the risk of the US actually engaging in a war with China would likely end life on earth as we all know it. Then again, the GOP party - and even the Dems - have shown a consistent willingness to race to the precipice of disaster by increasing the likelihood of ending the world through mutual nuclear self-destruction. So, I don't see Taiwan committing mass suicide -- but a mass earth murder/suicide started by America? 100% possible. Likely? Depends on the day. And the POTUS.
- chuckee 5y ago
  > And Australia and the US and Japan and others are not going to step up to defend Taiwan because China, unlike Iraq, and Afghanistan, and most recent US foes, can actually fight back. By the same argument you could say China won't attack Taiwan, because it and its allies can also actually fight back. And they are probably not so stupid as to think China's expansion will end with Taiwan, since taking Taiwan without others coming to Taiwan's aid will only embolden China, show them they can divide-and-conquer their way further. > So, I don't see Taiwan committing mass suicide -- but a mass earth murder/suicide started by America? How does China invading Taiwan work out to "started by America"?
  - readonthegoapp 5y ago
    > By the same argument you could say China won't attack Taiwan, because it and its allies can also actually fight back. You could make that same argument, but I don't think it would make any sense. The US _could_ attack any country on earth, and probably 'win', but there would be a non-zero chance that we would lose, thus we won't do it - my argument is about US behavior, not the behavior of countries that have nothing in common with the US in terms of power. Taiwan is not in the business of attacking other countries. China is not in the business of attacking other countries, either -- though they are about to make an exception for Taiwan. The US _is_ in the business of attacking other countries -- constantly. China sees Taiwan as the US sees Cuba, except even more/worse -- an existential threat that must be brought to heel, by force if necessary. Think of how the US reacted during the Turkey/Cuban Missile Crisis. We were willing to blow up the world - and all driven by US aggression in Turkey - thankfully we backed down. So, will the US risk their/our own destruction to either 'save' Taiwan from Chinese rule, or to maintain global dominance? No -- we don't need to. We'll still have control of the rest of the South Pacific - minus N Korea - and we already control space. There's a reason the US started building chip factories in the US -- we know China is about to run Taiwan. Australia and the Philippines and Japan and S Korea and maybe others will become much more wary of China very quickly, but it's not clear China has any real interest in conquering any more countries - at least, not by force. They talk openly about owning Taiwan, and most of the world is happy to cede Taiwan -- has already done so, in fact. China does _not_ talk openly about owning Australia, or the Philippines, Japan, etc. > How does China invading Taiwan work out to "started by America"? not sure what you mean by this -- i don't agree with this sentiment. the US has already made a decision to make China's takeover of Taiwan as politically/economically painful as possible - but that's it. and because the entire world is literally going to die if the US and China don't work together on climate, there will be practical limits to war between the two -- and, really, between any two nuclear-capable powers. India and Pakistan might blow up the world, Russia and the US might blow up the world, it just takes someone waking up in a bad mood one day and the world as we know it is over. so it comes back to - is the US willing to blow up the world to stop China from claiming Taiwan? i doubt it -- there's just no evidence for it. Biden is already calming relations, and Trump - to his credit - never wanted anything from China except money and practical politics. i think what Biden is doing thus far is mostly correct-ish, given the world we live in, and I'm not sure what the best approach would be going forward -- if one is interested in peace, freedom, etc. i would vote for something like: * see what China and the US and others want to start providing basic human rights to the various people we are torturing and murdering * see if we can agree to extend those rights to the people of Taiwan * de-nuclearize the world so some asshole doens't wake up in a bad mood one day and end us all * continue building goodwill in fight for freedom/justice for all humans, while fighting global warming i mean, something like that. Taiwanese people are legit fucked. It's an extremely messed up situation, but I thin we should be honest about what is happening, and what is likely to happen. If I had Taiwanese friends, I'd tell them to gtfo while they can, but that's not practical for most folks. Best we can do is push for non-agression, for human rights, etc. -- a lot of the stuff the US has very little standing on, unfortunately. But the US is not all-powerful -- other countries are not completely helpless, especially the bigger states.
simonblack 5y ago
China will only attack Taiwan if it has to. China attacking Taiwan is like the US attacking Hawaii. China's red line is if Taiwan declares independence. Exactly the same as the Union declared war on the Confederacy when the Confederacy declared independence.
- verdverm 5y ago
  Most people consider Taiwan an independent country, even if the media and bosses won't say so publicly. They also have American military hardware which would never be sold to China. Having an independent military is very different from Hawaii.
- jimmyvalmer 5y ago
  Interestingly, the South had contended the North drew first blood by electing Lincoln, which the South perceived as an act of war. Also, OP article is unresearched junk.
- chuckee 5y ago
  Exactly the same, in the sense that a war against Taiwan's independence is as morally justified as a war against slavery?
  - jimmyvalmer 5y ago
    Even the least attentive of American high school students are familiar with this quote from Lincoln: If I could save the Union without freeing any slave I would do it, and if I could save it by freeing all the slaves I would do it; and if I could save it by freeing some and leaving others alone I would also do that. Also, no reading of GP would suggest a moral comparison unless the reader was actively looking for one.
    - chuckee 5y ago
      Ah. So it is merely a war against the right of national self-determination.

16 points by hncurious 5y ago

Are they really? I guess technically they might be - it seems at least one person there says they are - but I doubt the entire population of Taiwan wants to commit mass suicide. And Australia and the US and Japan and others are not going to step up to defend Taiwan because China, unlike Iraq, and Afghanistan, and most recent US foes, can actually fight back. And China would likely win a war anywhere near China's sphere of influence, and the risk of the US actually engaging in a war with China would likely end life on earth as we all know it. Then again, the GOP party - and even the Dems - have shown a consistent willingness to race to the precipice of disaster by increasing the likelihood of ending the world through mutual nuclear self-destruction. So, I don't see Taiwan committing mass suicide -- but a mass earth murder/suicide started by America? 100% possible. Likely? Depends on the day. And the POTUS.

chuckee 5y ago
> And Australia and the US and Japan and others are not going to step up to defend Taiwan because China, unlike Iraq, and Afghanistan, and most recent US foes, can actually fight back. By the same argument you could say China won't attack Taiwan, because it and its allies can also actually fight back. And they are probably not so stupid as to think China's expansion will end with Taiwan, since taking Taiwan without others coming to Taiwan's aid will only embolden China, show them they can divide-and-conquer their way further. > So, I don't see Taiwan committing mass suicide -- but a mass earth murder/suicide started by America? How does China invading Taiwan work out to "started by America"?
- readonthegoapp 5y ago
  > By the same argument you could say China won't attack Taiwan, because it and its allies can also actually fight back. You could make that same argument, but I don't think it would make any sense. The US _could_ attack any country on earth, and probably 'win', but there would be a non-zero chance that we would lose, thus we won't do it - my argument is about US behavior, not the behavior of countries that have nothing in common with the US in terms of power. Taiwan is not in the business of attacking other countries. China is not in the business of attacking other countries, either -- though they are about to make an exception for Taiwan. The US _is_ in the business of attacking other countries -- constantly. China sees Taiwan as the US sees Cuba, except even more/worse -- an existential threat that must be brought to heel, by force if necessary. Think of how the US reacted during the Turkey/Cuban Missile Crisis. We were willing to blow up the world - and all driven by US aggression in Turkey - thankfully we backed down. So, will the US risk their/our own destruction to either 'save' Taiwan from Chinese rule, or to maintain global dominance? No -- we don't need to. We'll still have control of the rest of the South Pacific - minus N Korea - and we already control space. There's a reason the US started building chip factories in the US -- we know China is about to run Taiwan. Australia and the Philippines and Japan and S Korea and maybe others will become much more wary of China very quickly, but it's not clear China has any real interest in conquering any more countries - at least, not by force. They talk openly about owning Taiwan, and most of the world is happy to cede Taiwan -- has already done so, in fact. China does _not_ talk openly about owning Australia, or the Philippines, Japan, etc. > How does China invading Taiwan work out to "started by America"? not sure what you mean by this -- i don't agree with this sentiment. the US has already made a decision to make China's takeover of Taiwan as politically/economically painful as possible - but that's it. and because the entire world is literally going to die if the US and China don't work together on climate, there will be practical limits to war between the two -- and, really, between any two nuclear-capable powers. India and Pakistan might blow up the world, Russia and the US might blow up the world, it just takes someone waking up in a bad mood one day and the world as we know it is over. so it comes back to - is the US willing to blow up the world to stop China from claiming Taiwan? i doubt it -- there's just no evidence for it. Biden is already calming relations, and Trump - to his credit - never wanted anything from China except money and practical politics. i think what Biden is doing thus far is mostly correct-ish, given the world we live in, and I'm not sure what the best approach would be going forward -- if one is interested in peace, freedom, etc. i would vote for something like: * see what China and the US and others want to start providing basic human rights to the various people we are torturing and murdering * see if we can agree to extend those rights to the people of Taiwan * de-nuclearize the world so some asshole doens't wake up in a bad mood one day and end us all * continue building goodwill in fight for freedom/justice for all humans, while fighting global warming i mean, something like that. Taiwanese people are legit fucked. It's an extremely messed up situation, but I thin we should be honest about what is happening, and what is likely to happen. If I had Taiwanese friends, I'd tell them to gtfo while they can, but that's not practical for most folks. Best we can do is push for non-agression, for human rights, etc. -- a lot of the stuff the US has very little standing on, unfortunately. But the US is not all-powerful -- other countries are not completely helpless, especially the bigger states.

simonblack 5y ago

China will only attack Taiwan if it has to. China attacking Taiwan is like the US attacking Hawaii. China's red line is if Taiwan declares independence. Exactly the same as the Union declared war on the Confederacy when the Confederacy declared independence.

verdverm 5y ago
Most people consider Taiwan an independent country, even if the media and bosses won't say so publicly. They also have American military hardware which would never be sold to China. Having an independent military is very different from Hawaii.
jimmyvalmer 5y ago
Interestingly, the South had contended the North drew first blood by electing Lincoln, which the South perceived as an act of war. Also, OP article is unresearched junk.
chuckee 5y ago
Exactly the same, in the sense that a war against Taiwan's independence is as morally justified as a war against slavery?
- jimmyvalmer 5y ago
  Even the least attentive of American high school students are familiar with this quote from Lincoln: If I could save the Union without freeing any slave I would do it, and if I could save it by freeing all the slaves I would do it; and if I could save it by freeing some and leaving others alone I would also do that. Also, no reading of GP would suggest a moral comparison unless the reader was actively looking for one.
  - chuckee 5y ago
    Ah. So it is merely a war against the right of national self-determination.