Sure, there are technological and commercial (and regulatory, and, and, and...) aspects to the bet. The thing I'm after in my car bet is that I'm using 'replace

Sure, there are technological and commercial (and regulatory, and, and, and...) aspects to the bet. The thing I'm after in my car bet is that I'm using 'replaces humans at something that requires intelligence' as the bar to clear for what you describe as 'smarter computers in our life time.' Can you give a purer example of a bet that would demonstrate what you believe here?