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Here's a possibly related bet I have with a friend: "If, in ten year's time (from March 2021) self-driven cars outnumber manually-driven cars on the US roadways

Here's a possibly related bet I have with a friend: "If, in ten year's time (from March 2021) self-driven cars outnumber manually-driven cars on the US roadways, I will buy you dinner. (and vice-versa, he buys if they don't.)" I think it's a reasonably harder task than playing chess for assessing whatever it is we mean by 'intelligence' and my bias is that the difficulties remain under-appreciated by the technical optimists among us. But I could be wrong. What sort of bets are you willing to place?

leesec 5y ago
That sounds like a commercial acceptance bet rather than a technology one but yeah I would take the same bet. But I'd bet by 2031 driving a car will not be the peak of AI.
- pjmorris 5y ago
  Sure, there are technological and commercial (and regulatory, and, and, and...) aspects to the bet. The thing I'm after in my car bet is that I'm using 'replaces humans at something that requires intelligence' as the bar to clear for what you describe as 'smarter computers in our life time.' Can you give a purer example of a bet that would demonstrate what you believe here?
- pjmorris 5y ago
  I take commercial acceptance as a proxy for the acceptance and practicality of artificial intelligence at the 'everyday' task of driving. I would take the absence of commercial acceptance as evidence that artificial intelligence is not up to the 'everyday' task of driving.
  - fastball 5y ago
    Momentum is still a thing regardless of where the technology is. The current fastest production car in the world (and of all time) is an electric car, but most cars are still not electric. That doesn't mean gas cars are "better cars" than electric ones.
  - gopalv 5y ago
    > I would take the absence of commercial acceptance as evidence that artificial intelligence is not up to the 'everyday' task of driving. The most interesting thing Tesla is doing to make "acceptable" FSD possible is to open an insurance company. So commercial acceptance is proxy for capability, but it is not immune to regulatory moat building (or alternatively, go the other way - like, force 80+ year olds to drive enhanced cars). There's some ways around it, but that problem isn't a technology one.
Retric 5y ago
Not to spoil your fund but the average age of US cars is over 12 years. Edit: Which means you already won as on average cars last 24 years. Ops nm thought you where for it.
- pavlov 5y ago
  He’s on the other side of the bet.
enragedcacti 5y ago
I think you made an insanely good bet considering the average age of all vehicle types in the US except SUVs is greater than 10 years. Even if every new car in the US were fully self driving then it would be a tight bet assuming current trends hold. https://www.bts.gov/content/average-age-automobiles-and-trucks-operation-united-states https://www.bts.gov/content/average-age-automobiles-and-truc...
- pjmorris 5y ago
  I'd probably be willing to concede to a weaker form of the bet, say if more than 20% of taxi service miles driven were by self-driving cars. But we don't need to tell my friend that.

leesec 5y ago

That sounds like a commercial acceptance bet rather than a technology one but yeah I would take the same bet. But I'd bet by 2031 driving a car will not be the peak of AI.

pjmorris 5y ago
Sure, there are technological and commercial (and regulatory, and, and, and...) aspects to the bet. The thing I'm after in my car bet is that I'm using 'replaces humans at something that requires intelligence' as the bar to clear for what you describe as 'smarter computers in our life time.' Can you give a purer example of a bet that would demonstrate what you believe here?
pjmorris 5y ago
I take commercial acceptance as a proxy for the acceptance and practicality of artificial intelligence at the 'everyday' task of driving. I would take the absence of commercial acceptance as evidence that artificial intelligence is not up to the 'everyday' task of driving.
- fastball 5y ago
  Momentum is still a thing regardless of where the technology is. The current fastest production car in the world (and of all time) is an electric car, but most cars are still not electric. That doesn't mean gas cars are "better cars" than electric ones.
- gopalv 5y ago
  > I would take the absence of commercial acceptance as evidence that artificial intelligence is not up to the 'everyday' task of driving. The most interesting thing Tesla is doing to make "acceptable" FSD possible is to open an insurance company. So commercial acceptance is proxy for capability, but it is not immune to regulatory moat building (or alternatively, go the other way - like, force 80+ year olds to drive enhanced cars). There's some ways around it, but that problem isn't a technology one.

Retric 5y ago

Not to spoil your fund but the average age of US cars is over 12 years. Edit: Which means you already won as on average cars last 24 years. Ops nm thought you where for it.

pavlov 5y ago
He’s on the other side of the bet.

enragedcacti 5y ago

I think you made an insanely good bet considering the average age of all vehicle types in the US except SUVs is greater than 10 years. Even if every new car in the US were fully self driving then it would be a tight bet assuming current trends hold. https://www.bts.gov/content/average-age-automobiles-and-trucks-operation-united-states https://www.bts.gov/content/average-age-automobiles-and-truc...

pjmorris 5y ago
I'd probably be willing to concede to a weaker form of the bet, say if more than 20% of taxi service miles driven were by self-driving cars. But we don't need to tell my friend that.