4 ms·

I think it's fair to say that we've moved forward leaps and bounds since the the 80s. There have been major advances in compute and AI methods since that era.

I think it's fair to say that we've moved forward leaps and bounds since the the 80s. There have been major advances in compute and AI methods since that era. There's certainly much further to go and we may end up hitting another wall sooner than later, but AI is delivering tangible results today in ways that it never could in previous eras.

Joker_vD 5y ago
This same argument was just as valid in 1970 (AI has never been done before at all) and in 1985 (they did actually improve it, and the hardware, drastically). Still, in both cases walls were hit and hype died. So, learning from this dataset, I would predict something similar. In any case, the weather on a scale larger than 2 months is effectively can't be modelled because butterfly effect is real: there is just not enough raw data being collected, and it's not precise enough; and IIRC the required amount of data and floating-point precision for more or less accurate modelling grows exponentially wrt the time period being modelled.
- scoopertrooper 5y ago
  There's a difference though now, isn't there? For instance, every modern smartphone today has AI inference accelerator in it. Not even the largest supercomputer in 1985 (or even 1995) had anything close to the AI capability of even a phone today. Some are even beaten out by watches. Also, there were no practical applications of AI in 1985. There was a lot of speculation, but nothing came out of it because the technology just wasn't there yet. Today computer vision, voice recognition, voice synthesis, driving assist mechanisms, face recognition, and many other fields have been advanced considerably through the use of AI technologies. We have yet to even scratch the surface of what is possible with our current level of development. Yes, we'll hit a wall soon enough, but we'll hit that wall having developed a range of useful products. The previous iterations were considered hype because nothing came out of them, but that can not be said for the current environment. It's like saying there is a hype-cycle in cataract treatment because the development of method plateaued between babylonia and the age of reason.

Joker_vD 5y ago

This same argument was just as valid in 1970 (AI has never been done before at all) and in 1985 (they did actually improve it, and the hardware, drastically). Still, in both cases walls were hit and hype died. So, learning from this dataset, I would predict something similar. In any case, the weather on a scale larger than 2 months is effectively can't be modelled because butterfly effect is real: there is just not enough raw data being collected, and it's not precise enough; and IIRC the required amount of data and floating-point precision for more or less accurate modelling grows exponentially wrt the time period being modelled.

scoopertrooper 5y ago
There's a difference though now, isn't there? For instance, every modern smartphone today has AI inference accelerator in it. Not even the largest supercomputer in 1985 (or even 1995) had anything close to the AI capability of even a phone today. Some are even beaten out by watches. Also, there were no practical applications of AI in 1985. There was a lot of speculation, but nothing came out of it because the technology just wasn't there yet. Today computer vision, voice recognition, voice synthesis, driving assist mechanisms, face recognition, and many other fields have been advanced considerably through the use of AI technologies. We have yet to even scratch the surface of what is possible with our current level of development. Yes, we'll hit a wall soon enough, but we'll hit that wall having developed a range of useful products. The previous iterations were considered hype because nothing came out of them, but that can not be said for the current environment. It's like saying there is a hype-cycle in cataract treatment because the development of method plateaued between babylonia and the age of reason.