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Personally, I always love the "50% chance of rain" forecast as it perfectly describes that they have no idea if its going to rain or not, but yet sounds so scie
by cubano 5y ago
Personally, I always love the "50% chance of rain" forecast as it perfectly describes that they have no idea if its going to rain or not, but yet sounds so scientific and official.
- posco 5y agoPredicting 50% can be validated: if I say a coin will be heads 50% of the time, I know more than nothing: I know more than someone who incorrectly claims it will be heads 75% of the time. And we can quantify in various ways how much better the 50% prediction is than the 75% prediction.
- Stratoscope 5y agoThat's actually not what "50% chance of rain" means. Here's a pretty good explanation: https://www.wsfa.com/2019/08/23/what-does-chance-rain-really-mean/ https://www.wsfa.com/2019/08/23/what-does-chance-rain-really... And many more: https://www.google.com/search?q=50%25+chance+of+rain https://www.google.com/search?q=50%25+chance+of+rain
- elcomet 5y agoThat is absolutely not "we have no idea". It's a very precise prediction, not like a [10%-90%] range. If you look at all their 50% prediction, the half of it should be rain and half should be no rain. This is what this number tells you.