>IIRC meteorological forecasts are about 80% accurate a few days in, 50% accurate about two weeks into the future, and after that of not much use. 80% accurate

>IIRC meteorological forecasts are about 80% accurate a few days in, 50% accurate about two weeks into the future, and after that of not much use. 80% accurate about what ? If this is overall then I'm not impressed because in stable weather you'll get a high % of being right just by extrapolating. Similar with economics for that matter. What I usually care about and where weather forecast failed me just last month, is unstable time over a specific area. Just last weekend my wife and I were about to cancel our trip to my hometown because the forecast was high probability of rain for the entire weekend, this was the forecast on Friday. Went anyway and got a sunny Saturday and Sunday morning, got a bit cloudy by the end of Sunday when we were leaving. This happens so often that I don't know why I bother checking anymore.