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I might start getting into crypto after this. No, but on a serious note, I don’t think cryptocurrency will ever be a sufficient replacement for the US dollar,

I might start getting into crypto after this. No, but on a serious note, I don’t think cryptocurrency will ever be a sufficient replacement for the US dollar, but I can imagine the infrastructure going into it will produce new, helpful financial tools.

mplewis 5y ago
The financial industry doesn't need the kind of infrastructure you get from a new kind of decentralized blockchain.
- PKop 5y ago
  They might not need it if it didn't already exist, but since it does they might need to embrace it / adapt to it... also, taken at face value, some players such as Visa [0] claim it would aid with cross border transactions. "Helpful" could also apply to the users, not necessarily to the current providers they have been forced to deal with. For example, deposit instiutions that allow for USDC deposits while paying out much better interest rates, and even allow USDC to be used to pay for debit care payments are "useful" as hell to me, if not the bank I pulled my money out of (to deposit in various crypto custodians like Celsius and Crypto.com for yield). [0] https://cryptopotato.com/visa-announces-layer-2-payments-channel-for-cbdcs-and-stablecoins/ https://cryptopotato.com/visa-announces-layer-2-payments-cha...
burrows 5y ago
What timescale are you thinking on, 75 years or 15000 years?
cliftonk 5y ago
Most of the value in defi is in stablecoins and most prices are quoted in dollars. Some crypto stuff will have good value accrual mechanisms, others wont. The idea crypto displaces the dollar as a reserve currency is insanity.
- lowkey 5y ago
  The US dollar is inflating at 40% year/year as measured by M2 money supply and there seems to be no end in sight. The US government is considering minting a $1 Trillion dollar coin to keep this debt-spiral going a little longer. The idea of using the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency is an insane 50 year old experiment that won’t end well.
  - arcticbull 5y ago
    Wow that would be amazing if it were true or sensical or really even grounded. Inflation in the real world isn't defined by supply but rather purchasing power as measured by CPI. Your definition is closer to the Austrian definition, long debunked because what people do with that supply is as important as its existence. The M2 supply increased 15X since the 70s but purchasing power only dropped by a factor of 7, meaning without a doubt that supply isn't the be all and end all. TL;DR: The M2 supply is not a measure of inflation. It's just not.
    - lowkey 5y ago
      You are confusing cause and effect. Prices go up over time as measured in fiat because of monetary inflation (i.e. money printing) by the Fed which dilutes the purchasing power of the dollar. M2 monetary supply inflation coupled with the velocity of money causes CPI to increase, not the other way around. 70% of all the dollars ever created were created since the invention of Bitcoin. Please substantiate your claim that Austrian economics has been debunked (in favor of modern monetary theory I suppose?) From my perspective, Austrian economics is proving itself more and more each day. I would love to hear your explanation of how a nation can inflate it’s money supply by 40% in a year without affecting inflation.
      - bradwood 5y ago
        This. Plus also, lets for a moment remind ourselves how reliable of a measure of inflation CPI is. Its basis is a basket of products the composition of which is opaquely tweaked to suit an particular agenda. This makes it _less_ reliable than M1-M4 as a measure of inflation.

mplewis 5y ago

The financial industry doesn't need the kind of infrastructure you get from a new kind of decentralized blockchain.

PKop 5y ago
They might not need it if it didn't already exist, but since it does they might need to embrace it / adapt to it... also, taken at face value, some players such as Visa [0] claim it would aid with cross border transactions. "Helpful" could also apply to the users, not necessarily to the current providers they have been forced to deal with. For example, deposit instiutions that allow for USDC deposits while paying out much better interest rates, and even allow USDC to be used to pay for debit care payments are "useful" as hell to me, if not the bank I pulled my money out of (to deposit in various crypto custodians like Celsius and Crypto.com for yield). [0] https://cryptopotato.com/visa-announces-layer-2-payments-channel-for-cbdcs-and-stablecoins/ https://cryptopotato.com/visa-announces-layer-2-payments-cha...

burrows 5y ago

What timescale are you thinking on, 75 years or 15000 years?

cliftonk 5y ago

Most of the value in defi is in stablecoins and most prices are quoted in dollars. Some crypto stuff will have good value accrual mechanisms, others wont. The idea crypto displaces the dollar as a reserve currency is insanity.

lowkey 5y ago
The US dollar is inflating at 40% year/year as measured by M2 money supply and there seems to be no end in sight. The US government is considering minting a $1 Trillion dollar coin to keep this debt-spiral going a little longer. The idea of using the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency is an insane 50 year old experiment that won’t end well.
- arcticbull 5y ago
  Wow that would be amazing if it were true or sensical or really even grounded. Inflation in the real world isn't defined by supply but rather purchasing power as measured by CPI. Your definition is closer to the Austrian definition, long debunked because what people do with that supply is as important as its existence. The M2 supply increased 15X since the 70s but purchasing power only dropped by a factor of 7, meaning without a doubt that supply isn't the be all and end all. TL;DR: The M2 supply is not a measure of inflation. It's just not.
  - lowkey 5y ago
    You are confusing cause and effect. Prices go up over time as measured in fiat because of monetary inflation (i.e. money printing) by the Fed which dilutes the purchasing power of the dollar. M2 monetary supply inflation coupled with the velocity of money causes CPI to increase, not the other way around. 70% of all the dollars ever created were created since the invention of Bitcoin. Please substantiate your claim that Austrian economics has been debunked (in favor of modern monetary theory I suppose?) From my perspective, Austrian economics is proving itself more and more each day. I would love to hear your explanation of how a nation can inflate it’s money supply by 40% in a year without affecting inflation.
    - bradwood 5y ago
      This. Plus also, lets for a moment remind ourselves how reliable of a measure of inflation CPI is. Its basis is a basket of products the composition of which is opaquely tweaked to suit an particular agenda. This makes it _less_ reliable than M1-M4 as a measure of inflation.