I cannot quantify either the short or long-term risk, at all. I've followed Bitcoin since nearly the start, and I remember the bubble in 2011. It went to $31

I cannot quantify either the short or long-term risk, at all. I've followed Bitcoin since nearly the start, and I remember the bubble in 2011. It went to $31 and then fell to under $1 and did not increase over $31 again for nearly two years. I remember the 2013 bubble. It rose from about $15 to $1200 by November 2013. And then fell to $200 by January 2015. It would not exceed that again until the run up until the 2018 bubble. So, is it a bubble now or not? I don't really know. Based on the previous pattern, if it is, in two years it could be worth 10% what I put in. Well, long term the trend is up. Those plateaus do peak again higher. Which brings me to the long-term risk problem. What if many countries move to ban or heavily regulate it -- before the next bubble? Or anything else. Technical, political, economic. Cryptocurrencies are a lot newer than gold or real estate or stocks. So many unknowns still.