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I think Rivian and Lucid will not be around in 10 years. Legacy makers will still dominate. EV doesn't change the fundamental nature of the car sector, which
by pcurve 5y ago
I think Rivian and Lucid will not be around in 10 years. Legacy makers will still dominate. EV doesn't change the fundamental nature of the car sector, which is capital intensive, low-margin, and very buying cycle.
However, longer term, EV will follow the path of Android as cars become more autonomous. Things like driving dynamics, active and passive safety innovations will matter less and less.
The only thing that will matter at that point is data, software, and battery technology, which Tesla dominates. I wouldn't be surprised 20 years from now, if Tesla isn't even making any cars.
- taurath 5y agoI don’t necessarily agree with most but it seems like Tesla becoming a battery company primarily is interesting enough to give it a look. The main reason they’d probably want to be a car company is margins - I’d bet the battery market blows up with competitors as it’s sort of doing now and it’s almost too much of a risk to be all in on just batteries, where if you’re a battery wholesaler any shift in say resource mining availability could create pressure, where if you have a decent margin product on the back of it you can “eat” those costs, and also aren’t beholden to other customers. The legacy auto industry doesn’t treat suppliers well.