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I personally believe that out of all the electric car startups that have sprung up after Tesla, Rivian and Lucid are the 2 that are most likely to put out a pro

by jdhn 5y ago

I personally believe that out of all the electric car startups that have sprung up after Tesla, Rivian and Lucid are the 2 that are most likely to put out a product and potentially have some staying power, or get bought out. It's also worth noting that Ford has invested in Rivian (first or second major round I think?) in return for some of their tech. If you're a believer in the staying power of the F-150, then this could be viewed as a win for Ford as well.

pcurve 5y ago
I think Rivian and Lucid will not be around in 10 years. Legacy makers will still dominate. EV doesn't change the fundamental nature of the car sector, which is capital intensive, low-margin, and very buying cycle. However, longer term, EV will follow the path of Android as cars become more autonomous. Things like driving dynamics, active and passive safety innovations will matter less and less. The only thing that will matter at that point is data, software, and battery technology, which Tesla dominates. I wouldn't be surprised 20 years from now, if Tesla isn't even making any cars.
- taurath 5y ago
  I don’t necessarily agree with most but it seems like Tesla becoming a battery company primarily is interesting enough to give it a look. The main reason they’d probably want to be a car company is margins - I’d bet the battery market blows up with competitors as it’s sort of doing now and it’s almost too much of a risk to be all in on just batteries, where if you’re a battery wholesaler any shift in say resource mining availability could create pressure, where if you have a decent margin product on the back of it you can “eat” those costs, and also aren’t beholden to other customers. The legacy auto industry doesn’t treat suppliers well.
atombender 5y ago
Rivian does seem like the real deal. I first noticed them when prototype versions of their SUV truck were used for the recent Apple TV+ series Long Way Up [1], where Ewan McGregor and Charlie Boorman ride electric motorcycles from Ushuaia to Los Angeles, with a production team following in those Rivian cars. The crew absolutely loves the Rivians, and as far as I remember, they only experience a minor hiccup. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Way_Up https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Way_Up

by jdhn 5y ago

pcurve 5y ago

I think Rivian and Lucid will not be around in 10 years. Legacy makers will still dominate. EV doesn't change the fundamental nature of the car sector, which is capital intensive, low-margin, and very buying cycle. However, longer term, EV will follow the path of Android as cars become more autonomous. Things like driving dynamics, active and passive safety innovations will matter less and less. The only thing that will matter at that point is data, software, and battery technology, which Tesla dominates. I wouldn't be surprised 20 years from now, if Tesla isn't even making any cars.

taurath 5y ago
I don’t necessarily agree with most but it seems like Tesla becoming a battery company primarily is interesting enough to give it a look. The main reason they’d probably want to be a car company is margins - I’d bet the battery market blows up with competitors as it’s sort of doing now and it’s almost too much of a risk to be all in on just batteries, where if you’re a battery wholesaler any shift in say resource mining availability could create pressure, where if you have a decent margin product on the back of it you can “eat” those costs, and also aren’t beholden to other customers. The legacy auto industry doesn’t treat suppliers well.

atombender 5y ago

Rivian does seem like the real deal. I first noticed them when prototype versions of their SUV truck were used for the recent Apple TV+ series Long Way Up [1], where Ewan McGregor and Charlie Boorman ride electric motorcycles from Ushuaia to Los Angeles, with a production team following in those Rivian cars. The crew absolutely loves the Rivians, and as far as I remember, they only experience a minor hiccup. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Way_Up https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Way_Up