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For reference: they did 139k in Q3 2020 and 184k in Q1 2021. That's pretty nice growth, but still much less than any major car company.
by terafo 5y ago
For reference: they did 139k in Q3 2020 and 184k in Q1 2021. That's pretty nice growth, but still much less than any major car company.
- p49k 5y agoAverage price per vehicle is much higher than other brands. In terms of revenue in dollars, It seems they are on track to surpass Nissan next year, no?
- nuclearnice1 5y agoNissan is forecasting 9.75 trillion yen (88 billion usd) in net revenue for 2021. Tesla had automotive revenues of 19 billion usd in the first two quarters of 2021.
- p49k 5y agoYou're cherry-picking data to make Tesla's numbers and potential look worse than they actually are. The first two quarters are much slower for car sales; for example in 2020, Tesla shipped 178k units in Q1+Q2 and 319k units in Q3+Q4. Tesla had sales of 31.5B in 2020, and have 73% growth between Q3 2020 and 2021, which indicates they could hit 50B in 2021, and could hit close to 90B in 2022 if they continue the same YoY growth. Nissan is stagnant. It's reasonable to assume that Tesla is on track to surpass Nissan next year (2022).
- nuclearnice1 5y ago> You're cherry-picking data to make Tesla's numbers and potential look worse than they actually are. This accusation is false.
- maxharris 5y agoThese numbers do not include Giga Texas or Giga Berlin, both of which are nearing completion. Each of these factories are estimated to ramp to 500k vehicles/year in the first phase (going far higher in the years to follow). Giga Texas alone has around 8 million square feet of factory space, whereas GM has around 33.9 million square feet factory space, dedicated purely to ICE vehicle production, in its 10 US factories. I expect that around 900k Teslas will be produced and sold in 2021. The new factories easily bring that up to something around 1.8m-2m in 2022. At present, Toyota produces something on the order of 10m gasoline vehicles per year, and roughly zero EVs.
- jcims 5y agoI'm not even a layman in this area but I think a lot of the vertical integration for Tesla is purely the result of them being on the flame front of growth in new technological domains. An automaker creating new ASICs and new batteries is atypical, but they are in a much better position to both understand the demand and absorb the risk. Early automakers were in the same position, but eventually the worst ideas were filtered out and industry was able to develop around each of these areas until they could compete favorably with internally developed products. Musk's approach for both Tesla and SpaceX seem to be a very effective to effectively push into a new domain if you have the money and the guts to try. It will be interesting to watch how they evolve over time.
- Seanambers 5y agoThe argument about Tesla being to small to matter is dwindling fast. Elon has publicly stated a goal of a yearly production run rate of 20 million before 2030. And let's not get into the profit margins which is way better than ICE :)
- ksec 5y ago>And let's not get into the profit margins which is way better than ICE :) Why is that?
- ksec 5y agoIf these projections are true, one fifth of Toyota by 2022 and still growing is an astonishing achievement.
- sidcool 5y agoConsidering they are a new company on a manufacturing time scale, it's pretty impressive.
- mhh__ 5y agoThey're a new company but they're also not that new anymore if you consider that they've been an established player for years now.
- SuoDuanDao 5y agoWhat do you consider 'Established'? I'd consider it the first model 3 being sold so since 2017.
- terafo 5y agoEstablished players rarely grow quarterly sales(in units) by 70% in one year on top of 40% growth previous year, with expected almost doubling next year.
- newsclues 5y agoThere are car brands that were established in the 1800s.
- mhh__ 5y agoI bet their drivetrains are a bit younger than that.
- terafo 5y agoThat's very impressive indeed and if they can keep growing like this few more years they will definitely have more revenue than any other car company and might be top 1 by cars produced in less than a decade.
- mewpmewp2 5y agoI wonder how it will impact their data collection for self driving. There's many people here who hate on Tesla, but when seeing YouTube videos of Tesla owners posting footage of self-driving I'm constantly amazed and perplexed how far they have come and how intelligent the car appears to be. There's obviously edge cases where it fails and will be hard to iron out, but it definitely doesn't seem impossible based on countless of videos I have seen. It's amazing and I don't understand how anyone can reject this as a major advance in technology and where humanity will eventually arrive.
- ecpottinger 5y agoWhat other company has that percentage growth in sales?
- bryanlarsen 5y agoGM only sold 470k this quarter in the US. Not sure what GM's global sales are, but Tesla is getting closer to being comparable. https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/general-motors/2021/10/01/gm-sales-chip-shortage-suv/5934699001/ https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/general-motors/2021/1...
- terafo 5y agoWiki says that they sold almost 7 million in 2020 globally. To get to top 10 it's required to sell something like 2 million units globally.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- tonyedgecombe 5y agoA few more years at that growth rate and they will pass BMW.