3 ms·

Do you know how this current event compares in terms of percentage of population deaths? Would be hard because I think you'd have to control for health as well

Do you know how this current event compares in terms of percentage of population deaths? Would be hard because I think you'd have to control for health as well since it wouldn't be fair to compare current obesity rates with the past.

angelzen 5y ago
Age is the other major risk factor. The 1900 age pyramid is completely different than 2000 age pyramid. Within the biologically active sector of the population (persons with biological children in their future, aka children and young adults, or primary caregivers of such persons, aka mothers and fathers of minors), 1918 pandemic was way worse than covid. https://www.census.gov/dataviz/visualizations/055 https://www.census.gov/dataviz/visualizations/055
- ttyprintk 5y ago
  We’re starting to see the stats change for the delta variant. The article shows incidents of fatal infections now spiking for the 25-34 bracket. Edit: not claiming qualitative differences in the illness, that’s not what the article is about.
  - angelzen 5y ago
    ... we are not ... but there are nightmare scenarios ... some human induced ... pray they never come true ... This is media fear porn. Take a minuscule number. Can't fear monger the number itself. But look, it's 50% larger than it was during the last year's spike. The headlines write themselves: RECORD NUMBER OF YOUNG PEOPLE DIED DURING THE DELTA SURGE. JOE, 31, DIED OF COVID PS. The delta spike appears to be over in the South. I bet you never saw that one on the front page of NYT. PS2. Just noticed the funny choice of words. NYT prefers 'surge'. I prefer 'spike'. Because the data we have so far indicates that state-level 'spikes' are short lived, about 3 months, and then numbers rapidly decline. PS3. UK data. Two large spikes in spring 2020 and winter 2021. Then a relatively small spike corresponding to delta, apparently receding. Presumably the vaccine program worked quite well. Can we please stop fearmongering 'delta', as if it is the end of humanity? https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths
    - ttyprintk 5y ago
      This article is about each 100,000 COVID deaths in a big country. It’s a psychological number and since the last 600,000 cases, it happens to coincide with a new spike. I don’t think the average reader is more afraid after reading these facts. This article doesn’t compare state performance. It’s not important to always compare on electoral lines, and it sounds like you want a different article. The NYT is covering this from a national angle; your county newspaper will be more relevant.
      - angelzen 5y ago
        For a really large country like USA, state-level data is more accurate than country-level data when it comes to evaluating length of epidemic spikes. It is conceivable to have rolling spikes that affect different states at different times, but when summed up give the illusion of a never ending surge. County data is even better, but it's harder to assess at a glance, probably more prone to cherrypicking. The capitalized quotes are from the article itself. I'm pretty confident they are fearmongering the specific point that delta is super hyper dangerous for young cohorts.

angelzen 5y ago

Age is the other major risk factor. The 1900 age pyramid is completely different than 2000 age pyramid. Within the biologically active sector of the population (persons with biological children in their future, aka children and young adults, or primary caregivers of such persons, aka mothers and fathers of minors), 1918 pandemic was way worse than covid. https://www.census.gov/dataviz/visualizations/055 https://www.census.gov/dataviz/visualizations/055

ttyprintk 5y ago
We’re starting to see the stats change for the delta variant. The article shows incidents of fatal infections now spiking for the 25-34 bracket. Edit: not claiming qualitative differences in the illness, that’s not what the article is about.
- angelzen 5y ago
  ... we are not ... but there are nightmare scenarios ... some human induced ... pray they never come true ... This is media fear porn. Take a minuscule number. Can't fear monger the number itself. But look, it's 50% larger than it was during the last year's spike. The headlines write themselves: RECORD NUMBER OF YOUNG PEOPLE DIED DURING THE DELTA SURGE. JOE, 31, DIED OF COVID PS. The delta spike appears to be over in the South. I bet you never saw that one on the front page of NYT. PS2. Just noticed the funny choice of words. NYT prefers 'surge'. I prefer 'spike'. Because the data we have so far indicates that state-level 'spikes' are short lived, about 3 months, and then numbers rapidly decline. PS3. UK data. Two large spikes in spring 2020 and winter 2021. Then a relatively small spike corresponding to delta, apparently receding. Presumably the vaccine program worked quite well. Can we please stop fearmongering 'delta', as if it is the end of humanity? https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths
  - ttyprintk 5y ago
    This article is about each 100,000 COVID deaths in a big country. It’s a psychological number and since the last 600,000 cases, it happens to coincide with a new spike. I don’t think the average reader is more afraid after reading these facts. This article doesn’t compare state performance. It’s not important to always compare on electoral lines, and it sounds like you want a different article. The NYT is covering this from a national angle; your county newspaper will be more relevant.
    - angelzen 5y ago
      For a really large country like USA, state-level data is more accurate than country-level data when it comes to evaluating length of epidemic spikes. It is conceivable to have rolling spikes that affect different states at different times, but when summed up give the illusion of a never ending surge. County data is even better, but it's harder to assess at a glance, probably more prone to cherrypicking. The capitalized quotes are from the article itself. I'm pretty confident they are fearmongering the specific point that delta is super hyper dangerous for young cohorts.