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Given the disastrous way the US withdrew from Afghanistan if a now emboldened China decided to invade Taiwan I feel like the US would just stand by and watch. U

Given the disastrous way the US withdrew from Afghanistan if a now emboldened China decided to invade Taiwan I feel like the US would just stand by and watch. Unfortunate to see the resolve of the US falter to uphold.

runawaybottle 5y ago
It’s a power play. Biden isn’t going to commit forces to this situation because it would mean serious war. if I were China, I’d go for it. They can get John Cena to apologize in Mandarin, so they can sure as hell seize Taiwan.
- petre 5y ago
  Japan is very unlikely to sit and watch during a would be invasion of Taiwan. Mr. Kishida, the next likely PM of Japan has made it pretty clear that Japan needs to work together with the US in case they have to respond to a Taiwan invasion scenario. Here's the Global Times propaganda piece regarding his recent WSJ interview: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202109/1235510.shtml https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202109/1235510.shtml
  - dirtyid 5y ago
    JP plays up China threat card for domestic politics/electioneering. It's theater. Here's how you know JP will seriously engage in TW defense, if they adopt any of the recommendations US think tanks believe is necessary to make US forces survivable in TW defense scenarios. Increase defense budget substantially, hosting US IRBMs, allowing US assets to spread out over other JP islands (agile combat deployment). Non of this is politically feasible, especially the latter since it expose JP population centres to PRC retaliation. For reference Japanese won't even allow US Aegis Ashore ABM to defend themselves against NK nukes.
mc32 5y ago
We're weary of useless and unnecessary wars -exhausted. I'm glad we got out of a place we should have never been in. This is coming up and a wrong time for Taiwan. We are in no mood for wars, the president is neither, and may be exhausted himself. So, only if the military does it behind his back and essentially do a coup, would we go full on in there. We're spent, China knows it. But then, Taiwan, like Japan are of strategic importance. AF was the opposite of that. We could be 3T ahead in infrastructure instead. Probably the only thing that keeps China back is international trade. It would plummet and their economy would sour quick and the rest of the world would suffer "supply chain" pain. If anything happens this is mostly all GW's fault.
- petre 5y ago
  It's just a show if force. Taiwan could accidentally fly a drone swarm into their path. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/taiwan-wants-suicide-drones-counter-china%E2%80%99s-military-advantage-177872 https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/taiwan-wants-suicid...
  - ashwagary 5y ago
    Taiwan can't take down a Chinese jet without severe consequences. They understand that better than the average US neocon (referring to the writers of the National Interest).
    - petre 5y ago
      They can do just about anything they please in their airspace, including nuclear tests.
      - ashwagary 5y ago
        Sure they can but the consequences will be severe. It's equivalent to a remora fish pissing off the whale it feeds off of. Taiwan's economy would experience a tremendous decline in that scenario.
codezero 5y ago
Afghanistan doesn’t quite compare, for example a carrier group poses no threat whatsoever to Afghanistan because there is no infrastructure to destroy. In contrast one or two US carrier groups could not only offer a ridiculous level of defense, but also a fast moving and aggressive offense that would pose enough of a threat such that it wouldn’t need to be used. At least one can hope. Interesting and scary times tbh. Given the rapid change in situation in Hong Kong, though, I’m not expecting much.
- kaczordon 5y ago
  I wouldn’t be so sure, the growing vulnerability of American aircraft carriers to Chinese anti-ship ballistic missiles such as the DF-21D is just one problem to which the Pentagon lacks a good solution.
  - codezero 5y ago
    Oh I’m not at all sure and the prospect of testing these technologies is terrifying! Random: did you ever fuck around with PBXs in the early 90s?

runawaybottle 5y ago

It’s a power play. Biden isn’t going to commit forces to this situation because it would mean serious war. if I were China, I’d go for it. They can get John Cena to apologize in Mandarin, so they can sure as hell seize Taiwan.

petre 5y ago
Japan is very unlikely to sit and watch during a would be invasion of Taiwan. Mr. Kishida, the next likely PM of Japan has made it pretty clear that Japan needs to work together with the US in case they have to respond to a Taiwan invasion scenario. Here's the Global Times propaganda piece regarding his recent WSJ interview: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202109/1235510.shtml https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202109/1235510.shtml
- dirtyid 5y ago
  JP plays up China threat card for domestic politics/electioneering. It's theater. Here's how you know JP will seriously engage in TW defense, if they adopt any of the recommendations US think tanks believe is necessary to make US forces survivable in TW defense scenarios. Increase defense budget substantially, hosting US IRBMs, allowing US assets to spread out over other JP islands (agile combat deployment). Non of this is politically feasible, especially the latter since it expose JP population centres to PRC retaliation. For reference Japanese won't even allow US Aegis Ashore ABM to defend themselves against NK nukes.

mc32 5y ago

We're weary of useless and unnecessary wars -exhausted. I'm glad we got out of a place we should have never been in. This is coming up and a wrong time for Taiwan. We are in no mood for wars, the president is neither, and may be exhausted himself. So, only if the military does it behind his back and essentially do a coup, would we go full on in there. We're spent, China knows it. But then, Taiwan, like Japan are of strategic importance. AF was the opposite of that. We could be 3T ahead in infrastructure instead. Probably the only thing that keeps China back is international trade. It would plummet and their economy would sour quick and the rest of the world would suffer "supply chain" pain. If anything happens this is mostly all GW's fault.

petre 5y ago
It's just a show if force. Taiwan could accidentally fly a drone swarm into their path. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/taiwan-wants-suicide-drones-counter-china%E2%80%99s-military-advantage-177872 https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/taiwan-wants-suicid...
- ashwagary 5y ago
  Taiwan can't take down a Chinese jet without severe consequences. They understand that better than the average US neocon (referring to the writers of the National Interest).
  - petre 5y ago
    They can do just about anything they please in their airspace, including nuclear tests.
    - ashwagary 5y ago
      Sure they can but the consequences will be severe. It's equivalent to a remora fish pissing off the whale it feeds off of. Taiwan's economy would experience a tremendous decline in that scenario.

codezero 5y ago

Afghanistan doesn’t quite compare, for example a carrier group poses no threat whatsoever to Afghanistan because there is no infrastructure to destroy. In contrast one or two US carrier groups could not only offer a ridiculous level of defense, but also a fast moving and aggressive offense that would pose enough of a threat such that it wouldn’t need to be used. At least one can hope. Interesting and scary times tbh. Given the rapid change in situation in Hong Kong, though, I’m not expecting much.

kaczordon 5y ago
I wouldn’t be so sure, the growing vulnerability of American aircraft carriers to Chinese anti-ship ballistic missiles such as the DF-21D is just one problem to which the Pentagon lacks a good solution.
- codezero 5y ago
  Oh I’m not at all sure and the prospect of testing these technologies is terrifying! Random: did you ever fuck around with PBXs in the early 90s?