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What does this mean? Hasn't Tesla been selling FSD beta for like 5 years now? I don't really trust anything Elon says anymore. I feel like he's not followed th

by cheeze 5y ago

What does this mean? Hasn't Tesla been selling FSD beta for like 5 years now? I don't really trust anything Elon says anymore. I feel like he's not followed through on commitments about FSD far too many times. I'd personally never buy a TSLA until they get things much more in order (build quality/fit and finish, and actually deliver FSD)

jsight 5y ago
This version is much more advanced than their previous versions, but I generally agree with you. Its nowhere close to being able to get you through most drives without assistance.
dcow 5y ago
For the vast majority of people Tesla's vehicles are a practical, real, available, easy, modern, electric, car experience that are a near drop in replacement for ICE vehicles because you can road trip with them. There are zero competing offerings available today that have the range of a Tesla and an extensive associated integrated hi-amperage charging network. The only gripe is that FSD hasn't been delivered on the projected timelines (and may never be). I suspect you wouldn't buy a Tesla based on moonshot FSD claims anyway, so what's holding you back? The Elon hate train?
- rsj_hn 5y ago
  The reason why "the vast majority of people" are not considering purchasing an electric vehicle have to do with uncertainty about the charging experience and long term maintenance and repair costs. It has nothing to do with FSD. Once the costs of ownership are well understood, that uncertainly will be resolved and the cars can be priced correctly. That will take time -- if I buy a 10 year old corolla with 100K miles I will know (after the usual mechanic inspection) what my expected maintenance costs will be, on average, for the next 5 years of ownership. You can't really say that for an out-of-warantee Tesla because there isn't a large group of independent mechanics that can service it and because there is a lot of uncertainty about the battery life and service costs. Over time, if Teslas remain popular, and if the company doesn't DRM them out of existence, such networks will develop and we will accumulate actuarial data on repair costs that will reduce risk. Until then, this market will remain primarily one of price insensitive or risk-insensitive customers -- e.g. wealthier people and possibly government or other large corporate fleet sales. That is exactly what you would expect for new technologies. But for most people, a car is a major proportion of their networth, one they need to get to work, and so they are going to be risk averse (which is exactly what they should be). My next car will most likely be a 10 year old Lexus or Acura product. Even if it's a different manufacturer it will be an ICE vehicle and not an electric vehicle. Purchasing an out of warranty Tesla isn't remotely close to a viable option as it's not possible for me to price it. But used car prices drive new car prices because most purchasers are not planning on driving the car until it has zero value, they are counting on the used car market to pay for half of their car purchasing costs. Really for new technologies, Tesla should focus on leasing their cars if they want to reach out beyond the price insensitive market.
  - dcow 5y ago
    I'm suggesting that people are buying Teslas. I honestly can't go on a 5-10 min drive these days without seeing one or two (more and more every week it seems like) and I don't live in some particularly affluent upper-middle-class area. Buying them just makes sense to a lot of people for various reasons. Most aren't worried about FSD and the track record so far for Tesla total cost of ownership seems to lean in Tesla's favor. The motor in a Tesla literally has one moving part... they don't need regular maintenance like an ICE engine with lubricants and sparkers and belts and fluids and transmissions. Even the brakes don't wear the same way because induction is breaking the car 99% of the time. The only big question for me is when does the battery lose so much charge that it affects the range quality of life and if that were to happen does the price of replacing it make sense (I am generally pretty optimistic that battery prices will have dropped in 8 years) or does it become a shorter range around town car (kept or sold as such) and we get a new one with fresh range. Even at half the range it's still directly competitive with all other EVs out there today, so that's a thing too.
    - rsj_hn 5y ago
      What percent of car owners drive Teslas? There are ~300 million vehicles on the roads in the US. Pre chip shortage, ~17 million new cars sold each year. Of those, electric vehicles are what, 2% of the new car market and ~0.6% of the total market (used car market is twice as large as the new car market)? That is not "the vast majority of people". Where I live I see FJ cruisers, Porsches, and Bentleys every day, but I understand that my area is not typical. It's a wealthy area in which offroading is very popular. I also see Teslas and BMWs (more Mercedes than BMW and more BMW than Tesla). I also understand that those cars tend to be more memorable, so it's foolish to pretend that FJ Cruisers, Porsches, or Bentleys are suitable for the vast majority of the public just because they seem suitable for many people in my area. In the same way, perhaps you should recalibrate your expectations as well when extrapolating based on what you see in your area. Now what prevents a Porsche or Bentley from being suitable is that these are for niche performance or price insensitive markets. But what prevents something like the Tesla from being suitable is the charging network and repairability uncertainty. With a Bentley, you know you will pay through the nose for repairs which is why Bentleys depreciate so massively. But with Toyotas you know their reputation for durability, which is why used FJ Cruisers cost more than used Bentleys. But how much should a used Tesla go for? I honestly don't know -- and neither does anyone else right now. Unless you have a lot of money to play around with, that's too much of a risk. You don't spend 15-20% of your household net worth on something that you can't price.

by cheeze 5y ago

jsight 5y ago

This version is much more advanced than their previous versions, but I generally agree with you. Its nowhere close to being able to get you through most drives without assistance.

dcow 5y ago

For the vast majority of people Tesla's vehicles are a practical, real, available, easy, modern, electric, car experience that are a near drop in replacement for ICE vehicles because you can road trip with them. There are zero competing offerings available today that have the range of a Tesla and an extensive associated integrated hi-amperage charging network. The only gripe is that FSD hasn't been delivered on the projected timelines (and may never be). I suspect you wouldn't buy a Tesla based on moonshot FSD claims anyway, so what's holding you back? The Elon hate train?

rsj_hn 5y ago
The reason why "the vast majority of people" are not considering purchasing an electric vehicle have to do with uncertainty about the charging experience and long term maintenance and repair costs. It has nothing to do with FSD. Once the costs of ownership are well understood, that uncertainly will be resolved and the cars can be priced correctly. That will take time -- if I buy a 10 year old corolla with 100K miles I will know (after the usual mechanic inspection) what my expected maintenance costs will be, on average, for the next 5 years of ownership. You can't really say that for an out-of-warantee Tesla because there isn't a large group of independent mechanics that can service it and because there is a lot of uncertainty about the battery life and service costs. Over time, if Teslas remain popular, and if the company doesn't DRM them out of existence, such networks will develop and we will accumulate actuarial data on repair costs that will reduce risk. Until then, this market will remain primarily one of price insensitive or risk-insensitive customers -- e.g. wealthier people and possibly government or other large corporate fleet sales. That is exactly what you would expect for new technologies. But for most people, a car is a major proportion of their networth, one they need to get to work, and so they are going to be risk averse (which is exactly what they should be). My next car will most likely be a 10 year old Lexus or Acura product. Even if it's a different manufacturer it will be an ICE vehicle and not an electric vehicle. Purchasing an out of warranty Tesla isn't remotely close to a viable option as it's not possible for me to price it. But used car prices drive new car prices because most purchasers are not planning on driving the car until it has zero value, they are counting on the used car market to pay for half of their car purchasing costs. Really for new technologies, Tesla should focus on leasing their cars if they want to reach out beyond the price insensitive market.
- dcow 5y ago
  I'm suggesting that people are buying Teslas. I honestly can't go on a 5-10 min drive these days without seeing one or two (more and more every week it seems like) and I don't live in some particularly affluent upper-middle-class area. Buying them just makes sense to a lot of people for various reasons. Most aren't worried about FSD and the track record so far for Tesla total cost of ownership seems to lean in Tesla's favor. The motor in a Tesla literally has one moving part... they don't need regular maintenance like an ICE engine with lubricants and sparkers and belts and fluids and transmissions. Even the brakes don't wear the same way because induction is breaking the car 99% of the time. The only big question for me is when does the battery lose so much charge that it affects the range quality of life and if that were to happen does the price of replacing it make sense (I am generally pretty optimistic that battery prices will have dropped in 8 years) or does it become a shorter range around town car (kept or sold as such) and we get a new one with fresh range. Even at half the range it's still directly competitive with all other EVs out there today, so that's a thing too.
  - rsj_hn 5y ago
    What percent of car owners drive Teslas? There are ~300 million vehicles on the roads in the US. Pre chip shortage, ~17 million new cars sold each year. Of those, electric vehicles are what, 2% of the new car market and ~0.6% of the total market (used car market is twice as large as the new car market)? That is not "the vast majority of people". Where I live I see FJ cruisers, Porsches, and Bentleys every day, but I understand that my area is not typical. It's a wealthy area in which offroading is very popular. I also see Teslas and BMWs (more Mercedes than BMW and more BMW than Tesla). I also understand that those cars tend to be more memorable, so it's foolish to pretend that FJ Cruisers, Porsches, or Bentleys are suitable for the vast majority of the public just because they seem suitable for many people in my area. In the same way, perhaps you should recalibrate your expectations as well when extrapolating based on what you see in your area. Now what prevents a Porsche or Bentley from being suitable is that these are for niche performance or price insensitive markets. But what prevents something like the Tesla from being suitable is the charging network and repairability uncertainty. With a Bentley, you know you will pay through the nose for repairs which is why Bentleys depreciate so massively. But with Toyotas you know their reputation for durability, which is why used FJ Cruisers cost more than used Bentleys. But how much should a used Tesla go for? I honestly don't know -- and neither does anyone else right now. Unless you have a lot of money to play around with, that's too much of a risk. You don't spend 15-20% of your household net worth on something that you can't price.