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> And, most concerning; many people want mandatory vaccination. No one should want it. The alternative is overflowing hospitals, masks forever and the restrict

by stirlo 5y ago

> And, most concerning; many people want mandatory vaccination. No one should want it. The alternative is overflowing hospitals, masks forever and the restrictions on movement. I 100% want those who force this on society to stopped. The last 18 months have already been tremendously ugly. A vaccine mandate is far less so.

015a 5y ago
You're presenting a false dichotomy [1]; attempting to simplify an incredibly complex and nuanced situation into either A or B. You need to understand: the answer is neither A nor B. First, overflowing hospitals is a major public health problem. The exact cause of this issue is more opaque. Certainly, higher vaccination rates could reasonably reduce the number of people admitted to hospitals, and thus reduce strain on the healthcare system. I assert this as reasonable, though not guaranteed, given there is still some significant fog-of-war on whether COVID is out-evolving the Pfizer vaccine, let alone J&J, too quickly. Recent data out of Israel is cause for concern; ~79% fully vaccinated population, with very high new-case rates, and ~60% of hospitalizations are fully vaccinated [2]. They're having the opposite problem the US is having; we need to figure out why. Its not unreasonable to say they're ahead of a curve that is on its way to the US. Additionally, there is significant evidence that natural immunity is capable of producing a more robust, stronger, and longer-lasting immune reaction than any of the current vaccines [3]. Unfortunately, mandatory vaccinations or vaccine passports, as they have been presented in the United States, do not offer any onboarding ramp for people to present previous infection, or even positive presence of antibodies, as a means of replacement for the vaccine. There is strong evidence that infection, plus a vaccine, exhibits some of the highest antibody volumes of any patients, far exceeding vaccine or infection alone [4]. But, does the order matter? What about vaccine, then infection; a possibility that is scary to consider, but an unfortunate reality of these current vaccines. One hot topic of research right now is in antibody-dependent enhancement; in short, when previous infection causes an antibody to be built, the virus mutates, reinfection with the mutation occurs, and the mutated virus can now leverage the antibodies used against its predecessor to infiltrate cells faster. Unfortunately, the research is ongoing and mixed [5,6]; but it may eventually be discovered that vaccination with the current kinds of vaccines, built against SARS-CoV-2 Original, contribute some level of antibody-dependent enhancement for infections with the inevitable upcoming Omega Variant, and thus recipients of vaccines, and possibly even those with natural immunity today, could experience higher mortality rates than those whose immune systems have never seen the virus. Which is all to say: Why are hospitals overflowing? Maybe its because of the unvaccinated (this appears to be the case in the US; it is not the case in some other countries). Definitely its because: The US is facing a critical healthcare provider personnel shortage right now [7]. Many hospitals have beds and rooms, physically; what they don't have are people to care for the patients in them. In other words; if the strongest argument for mass vaccination is to protect the public health system of the United States; there is compelling evidence to suggest that the vaccines we have today are not good enough to accomplish this, but are nonetheless being used as a band-aid by the Biden Administration on top of the bullet wound of the healthcare system's long-term rot, resulting from overwork and underpay. Vaccines are easy; fixing the bigger problems at the core of all hospitals, insurance companies, and provider-patient relationships is much, much harder, and its a task the administration seems totally disinterested from taking on. Ultimately, the best way to end COVID is to end COVID; we can't let it out-mutate the vaccines we have. The mRNA vaccines we have today do a reasonably effective job of reaching this goal; but unfortunately, its not good enough. Even if the United States and other western-aligned first world nations can reach 100% full vaccination (which will not happen; at least 5% of the US population is immunocompromised [8]); COVID spreads too quickly, and we are not producing vaccines fast enough to innoculate non-first-world nations [9]. We are a global society. The next COVID evolution won't come from the US; it'll come from somewhere with far, far lower vaccination rates, then spread to the US. If we're lucky, the vaccines will work against it; maybe with another booster. But, that's no guarantee, and when (not if) that evolution happens that escapes the vaccine, we'll be back to square 1. Oh, and the global vaccination situation is even worse than those numbers suggest, because there's unfortunate compelling evidence that the Chinese Sinovac vaccine is, to put it mildly, not as efficacious as the mRNA vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna [10], and China has been doing some very serious vaccine diplomacy. So, what's the end-game? The alternative you suggest? Masks and Travel Restrictions forever? Ultimately, these are not realities imposed upon us by COVID; they're realities imposed upon us by our Government and Society. Reasonable ones! But, COVID isn't going anywhere. It is absolutely endemic. The decision before us isn't "how are we going to get rid of COVID"; its, how are we going to structure our lives differently knowing its always going to be out there. I don't know what the right answer is, but I don't believe broad, long-term mask mandates and travel restrictions are socioeconomically sustainable. Maybe the "right" answer here has less to do with public physical health, and more to do with psychology; accepting that COVID adds a new scary risk to our world, but still stepping out the door every day to face it. [1] https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/black-or-white https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/black-or-white [2] https://www.science.org/news/2021/08/grim-warning-israel-vaccination-blunts-does-not-defeat-delta https://www.science.org/news/2021/08/grim-warning-israel-vac... [3] https://www.aier.org/article/stronger-more-robust-natural-immunity-thwarts-any-case-for-vaccine-passports/ https://www.aier.org/article/stronger-more-robust-natural-im... [4] https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/immune-response-vaccination-after-covid-19 https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/immune-... [5] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34579572/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34579572/ [6] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7943455/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7943455/ [7] https://www.npr.org/2021/08/10/1026577164/hospitals-face-a-shortage-of-nurses-as-covid-cases-soar https://www.npr.org/2021/08/10/1026577164/hospitals-face-a-s... [8] https://thebulletin.org/2008/01/the-growing-number-of-immunocompromised/ https://thebulletin.org/2008/01/the-growing-number-of-immuno... [9] https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations [10] https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/are-chinas-vaccines-effective-4-countries-tell-cautionary-tales/ar-AALmoUD https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/are-chinas-vaccines-eff...

by stirlo 5y ago

015a 5y ago

You're presenting a false dichotomy [1]; attempting to simplify an incredibly complex and nuanced situation into either A or B. You need to understand: the answer is neither A nor B. First, overflowing hospitals is a major public health problem. The exact cause of this issue is more opaque. Certainly, higher vaccination rates could reasonably reduce the number of people admitted to hospitals, and thus reduce strain on the healthcare system. I assert this as reasonable, though not guaranteed, given there is still some significant fog-of-war on whether COVID is out-evolving the Pfizer vaccine, let alone J&J, too quickly. Recent data out of Israel is cause for concern; ~79% fully vaccinated population, with very high new-case rates, and ~60% of hospitalizations are fully vaccinated [2]. They're having the opposite problem the US is having; we need to figure out why. Its not unreasonable to say they're ahead of a curve that is on its way to the US. Additionally, there is significant evidence that natural immunity is capable of producing a more robust, stronger, and longer-lasting immune reaction than any of the current vaccines [3]. Unfortunately, mandatory vaccinations or vaccine passports, as they have been presented in the United States, do not offer any onboarding ramp for people to present previous infection, or even positive presence of antibodies, as a means of replacement for the vaccine. There is strong evidence that infection, plus a vaccine, exhibits some of the highest antibody volumes of any patients, far exceeding vaccine or infection alone [4]. But, does the order matter? What about vaccine, then infection; a possibility that is scary to consider, but an unfortunate reality of these current vaccines. One hot topic of research right now is in antibody-dependent enhancement; in short, when previous infection causes an antibody to be built, the virus mutates, reinfection with the mutation occurs, and the mutated virus can now leverage the antibodies used against its predecessor to infiltrate cells faster. Unfortunately, the research is ongoing and mixed [5,6]; but it may eventually be discovered that vaccination with the current kinds of vaccines, built against SARS-CoV-2 Original, contribute some level of antibody-dependent enhancement for infections with the inevitable upcoming Omega Variant, and thus recipients of vaccines, and possibly even those with natural immunity today, could experience higher mortality rates than those whose immune systems have never seen the virus. Which is all to say: Why are hospitals overflowing? Maybe its because of the unvaccinated (this appears to be the case in the US; it is not the case in some other countries). Definitely its because: The US is facing a critical healthcare provider personnel shortage right now [7]. Many hospitals have beds and rooms, physically; what they don't have are people to care for the patients in them. In other words; if the strongest argument for mass vaccination is to protect the public health system of the United States; there is compelling evidence to suggest that the vaccines we have today are not good enough to accomplish this, but are nonetheless being used as a band-aid by the Biden Administration on top of the bullet wound of the healthcare system's long-term rot, resulting from overwork and underpay. Vaccines are easy; fixing the bigger problems at the core of all hospitals, insurance companies, and provider-patient relationships is much, much harder, and its a task the administration seems totally disinterested from taking on. Ultimately, the best way to end COVID is to end COVID; we can't let it out-mutate the vaccines we have. The mRNA vaccines we have today do a reasonably effective job of reaching this goal; but unfortunately, its not good enough. Even if the United States and other western-aligned first world nations can reach 100% full vaccination (which will not happen; at least 5% of the US population is immunocompromised [8]); COVID spreads too quickly, and we are not producing vaccines fast enough to innoculate non-first-world nations [9]. We are a global society. The next COVID evolution won't come from the US; it'll come from somewhere with far, far lower vaccination rates, then spread to the US. If we're lucky, the vaccines will work against it; maybe with another booster. But, that's no guarantee, and when (not if) that evolution happens that escapes the vaccine, we'll be back to square 1. Oh, and the global vaccination situation is even worse than those numbers suggest, because there's unfortunate compelling evidence that the Chinese Sinovac vaccine is, to put it mildly, not as efficacious as the mRNA vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna [10], and China has been doing some very serious vaccine diplomacy. So, what's the end-game? The alternative you suggest? Masks and Travel Restrictions forever? Ultimately, these are not realities imposed upon us by COVID; they're realities imposed upon us by our Government and Society. Reasonable ones! But, COVID isn't going anywhere. It is absolutely endemic. The decision before us isn't "how are we going to get rid of COVID"; its, how are we going to structure our lives differently knowing its always going to be out there. I don't know what the right answer is, but I don't believe broad, long-term mask mandates and travel restrictions are socioeconomically sustainable. Maybe the "right" answer here has less to do with public physical health, and more to do with psychology; accepting that COVID adds a new scary risk to our world, but still stepping out the door every day to face it. [1] https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/black-or-white https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/black-or-white [2] https://www.science.org/news/2021/08/grim-warning-israel-vaccination-blunts-does-not-defeat-delta https://www.science.org/news/2021/08/grim-warning-israel-vac... [3] https://www.aier.org/article/stronger-more-robust-natural-immunity-thwarts-any-case-for-vaccine-passports/ https://www.aier.org/article/stronger-more-robust-natural-im... [4] https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/immune-response-vaccination-after-covid-19 https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/immune-... [5] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34579572/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34579572/ [6] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7943455/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7943455/ [7] https://www.npr.org/2021/08/10/1026577164/hospitals-face-a-shortage-of-nurses-as-covid-cases-soar https://www.npr.org/2021/08/10/1026577164/hospitals-face-a-s... [8] https://thebulletin.org/2008/01/the-growing-number-of-immunocompromised/ https://thebulletin.org/2008/01/the-growing-number-of-immuno... [9] https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations [10] https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/are-chinas-vaccines-effective-4-countries-tell-cautionary-tales/ar-AALmoUD https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/are-chinas-vaccines-eff...