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> We want policy (politics) to create certainty and stability. Maybe it's this half of the equation that needs to be examined.

thaumasiotes 5y ago
That's not going to change. Certainty and stability is what people want.
- magicink81 5y ago
  Ahem, need - at least from our leaders. It may be that creating certainty amid uncertainty is itself the core of leadership. The stories we are most certain of are the ones we use to run our lives, to make decisions, and take action. One heuristic for this is the 40-70 rule - a heuristic for decision making. In order to make a decision you should have no less than 40 percent of the information you would prefer to have, and you shouldn't wait to make the decision once you have 70 percent of the information you would prefer have.
  - thaumasiotes 5y ago
    > Ahem, need - at least from our leaders. I'm sympathetic to this. There is a strong argument to be made that this is a need. > It may be that creating certainty amid uncertainty is itself the core of leadership. I would agree with this without reservation. But the phenomenon here is being driven by what people want, not what people need. If they're benefiting from the certainty they get, that's just a coincidence. Wanting and needing are different things, and while people may need some certainty, they want much more than they need, and they're getting more than the optimal amount.
- dnautics 5y ago
  Doubtful. There is a way to project confidence while acknowledging fundamental uncertainty, I think it's probably more effective and sustainable than outright lying. Being untransparent about difficulty in the long run creates distrust in authority because eventually you accumulate enough fuckups. I think the biggest error in modern leadership practices is confusing certainty for confidence. Anyways your statement is literally begging the question: ["people want certainty and stability" is] not going to change. Certainty and stability is what people want.

thaumasiotes 5y ago

That's not going to change. Certainty and stability is what people want.

magicink81 5y ago
Ahem, need - at least from our leaders. It may be that creating certainty amid uncertainty is itself the core of leadership. The stories we are most certain of are the ones we use to run our lives, to make decisions, and take action. One heuristic for this is the 40-70 rule - a heuristic for decision making. In order to make a decision you should have no less than 40 percent of the information you would prefer to have, and you shouldn't wait to make the decision once you have 70 percent of the information you would prefer have.
- thaumasiotes 5y ago
  > Ahem, need - at least from our leaders. I'm sympathetic to this. There is a strong argument to be made that this is a need. > It may be that creating certainty amid uncertainty is itself the core of leadership. I would agree with this without reservation. But the phenomenon here is being driven by what people want, not what people need. If they're benefiting from the certainty they get, that's just a coincidence. Wanting and needing are different things, and while people may need some certainty, they want much more than they need, and they're getting more than the optimal amount.
dnautics 5y ago
Doubtful. There is a way to project confidence while acknowledging fundamental uncertainty, I think it's probably more effective and sustainable than outright lying. Being untransparent about difficulty in the long run creates distrust in authority because eventually you accumulate enough fuckups. I think the biggest error in modern leadership practices is confusing certainty for confidence. Anyways your statement is literally begging the question: ["people want certainty and stability" is] not going to change. Certainty and stability is what people want.