In this kind of analysis, you can't ignore the role of government stimulus spending in juicing the economy. Yes, 2009/10 were better, but largely as a result o

In this kind of analysis, you can't ignore the role of government stimulus spending in juicing the economy. Yes, 2009/10 were better, but largely as a result of stupendous stimulus packages. The current problems are a predictable consequence of that stimulus money running out. So, that stimulus spending brought the financial world some breathing room. Now, the question you have to ask is, was that breathing room put to good use? Have the fundamental imbalances which triggered the 2008 liquidity crisis been corrected? I think if you look at the financial/legal problems BAC is facing and the economic instability in the European PIIGS countries, the answer is no. So then you have to ask whether there's going to be another liquidity crisis, and how much capacity and political will there will be for further government stimulus, if there is another crisis. I think another liquidity crisis is all but certain. If that's so, and government stimulus is limited, the downturn will be hard and protracted, and you are going to need a hell of a good business plan just to survive. If the stimulus is vigorous, there will be another acceleration to the economy, and that will be the ideal time to be taking money to grow a nascent business. So I don't think it's as simple as you make it out to be. Starting a business now is basically a bet that either the problems which caused the 2008 crisis have been corrected (doubtful) or there will be another massive stimulus when another crisis arises (highly uncertain, but certainly possible.)