7 ms·

There is no scientific proof, e.g. RCT, that lockdowns work. When did 'stay at home if sick, live life otherwise' become obsoleted? Edit: "3) is a new developm

There is no scientific proof, e.g. RCT, that lockdowns work. When did 'stay at home if sick, live life otherwise' become obsoleted? Edit: "3) is a new development that was apparently somewhat unexpected". That evolutionary pressures on the virus might^H^H^H will cause the vaccines to become less effective was and is the #1 concern of the critics of mass mRNA vaccination campaigns.

jjwiseman 5y ago
> When did 'stay at home if sick, live life otherwise' become obsoleted? When we figured out there was asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic spread. Your advice probably leads to significantly more than 219 million cases worldwide, and 4.5 million dead.
judahmeek 5y ago
> There is no scientific proof, e.g. RCT, that lockdowns work. Sure there is: https://www.news-medical.net/news/20201116/Study-compares-deaths-in-Sweden-and-Norway-before-and-after-COVID-pandemic.aspx https://www.news-medical.net/news/20201116/Study-compares-de... > When did 'stay at home if sick, live life otherwise' become obsoleted? When covid spread while the victims were still asymptomatic.
- angelzen 5y ago
  That is not a RCT, that is comparing 2 data points selected after the results were known. The reason we have RCTs is that it is very easy to fool oneself, for example by filtering the experiment populations after the results are known. Remember when peer reviewed journals published experiments 'proving' ESP. https://www.cbc.ca/radio/ideas/psychologists-confront-impossible-finding-triggering-a-revolution-in-the-field-1.5344467 https://www.cbc.ca/radio/ideas/psychologists-confront-imposs... Re asymptomatic. Vaccinated people also spread the disease asymptomatically. I have seen zero rigorous studies showing how vaccinated asymptomatic spread compares with unvaccinated asymptomatic spread. No, picking 3 studies and linking data between them is not a replacement for a rigorous RCT. This is a particularly salient question as the biggest selling point of vaccines is that they reduce symptom severity.
  - judahmeek 5y ago
    > I have seen zero rigorous studies showing how vaccinated asymptomatic spread compares with unvaccinated asymptomatic spread. [...] This is a particularly salient question as the biggest selling point of vaccines is that they reduce symptom severity. And why are you linking spread & symptom severity?
    - angelzen 5y ago
      Asymptomatic spreader: Person with an active infection that exhibits symptoms under their own personal threshold for self quarantine. Core vaccines observable effect: Reduce manifestation of symptoms in infected persons. It is possible that the vaccinated population has a larger rate and/or absolute numbers of people with no/low symptoms, aka 'asymptomatic spreaders'. It is also possible the other way around. I don't have hard data, nobody else seems to do. Given that I don't actually know, I'm happy to refrain from speculation. I wish I could say the same from the 'any measure that may have some conceivable effect of reducing R0 must be mandated yesterday, or else you are personally responsible for the death of 4M people worldwide, and counting' crowd.
      - judahmeek 5y ago
        > I wish I could say the same from the 'any measure that may have some conceivable effect of reducing R0 must be mandated yesterday, or else you are personally responsible for the death of 4M people worldwide, and counting' crowd. >> This is a particularly salient question as the biggest selling point of vaccines is that they reduce symptom severity. You mean the 'any measure that may have some conceivable effect of reducing symptom severity must be mandated yesterday, or else you are personally responsible for the death of 4M people worldwide, and counting' crowd.
xg15 5y ago
> "There is no scientific proof, e.g. RCT, that lockdowns work. You want to make a randomized, controlled study on entire countries? That's your idea of ethics in science? > That evolutionary pressures on the virus might^H^H^H will cause the vaccines to become less effective was and is the #1 concern of the critics of mass mRNA vaccination campaigns. No, it was one argument of whatever seemed convenient at that point to argue against vaccines. Consequently, their only advice how to cope with that problem seems to basically give up and don't do anything. Honestly, I don't understand what strategy you guys would propose to end the pandemic. Apart from pretending it doesn't exist of course.
- angelzen 5y ago
  Sometimes I picture a lot of the covid measures as raising sandbag walls in front of a tsunami. Feels good to do something, anything, but the tsunami is going to do its thing, at best delayed a bit. The second the earthquake hit, Sendai was gone. There was nothing anybody could do about it. If that's "pretending it doesn't exist", then so be it. * Vaccines are useful in preventing severe disease. Get one, especially if your are not a child. But they are also fragile and it's anybody's guess how they'll interact with a 'likely vaccine evading variant' (quoting Pfizer CEO here). * It is unclear what effect the vaccines have on the virus evolution. We assume its going to be positive, but have no actual data on it. * It is unclear what effect the vaccines have on disease spread. The big question is the effect of vaccines on the rate of 'asymptomatic spreaders', which may increase under a regimen of reducing symptom severity. * Lockdowns have massive costs. Keeping the world running also saves lives, and it's not at all clear that the balance favors hard covid measures. * Suspended school, masks and social distancing have severe costs in children. I am not sure we thought through the consequences on the next generation. * The scapegoating shaping online is grotesque. Being a fortunate to be born post WW2 world with its bounty of health, I never understood the story of touching the leper. Until the reaction to the covid pandemic finally illuminated my mind. The costs of attempts to cure the disease may be worse than the disease. And the disease is horrible.
  - xg15 5y ago
    I think it's an interesting discussion. Thanks for explaining your viewpoint, even if I don't agree with it. But I'd like to ask again: You've listed a lot of points on what not to do. But so what should we do to tackle this virus? A virus that will quickly cause enough severe cases to require triage at hospitals.if left unchecked and that will not go away anymore on its own. Or do you really view this as some sort of slow-motion Armageddon, destinied to bring in the end times - so any resistance is futile on principle?
jlebar 5y ago
> There is no scientific proof, e.g. RCT, that lockdowns work Nor that parachutes work! https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC300808/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC300808/
- angelzen 5y ago
  Correct!

jjwiseman 5y ago

> When did 'stay at home if sick, live life otherwise' become obsoleted? When we figured out there was asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic spread. Your advice probably leads to significantly more than 219 million cases worldwide, and 4.5 million dead.

judahmeek 5y ago

> There is no scientific proof, e.g. RCT, that lockdowns work. Sure there is: https://www.news-medical.net/news/20201116/Study-compares-deaths-in-Sweden-and-Norway-before-and-after-COVID-pandemic.aspx https://www.news-medical.net/news/20201116/Study-compares-de... > When did 'stay at home if sick, live life otherwise' become obsoleted? When covid spread while the victims were still asymptomatic.

angelzen 5y ago
That is not a RCT, that is comparing 2 data points selected after the results were known. The reason we have RCTs is that it is very easy to fool oneself, for example by filtering the experiment populations after the results are known. Remember when peer reviewed journals published experiments 'proving' ESP. https://www.cbc.ca/radio/ideas/psychologists-confront-impossible-finding-triggering-a-revolution-in-the-field-1.5344467 https://www.cbc.ca/radio/ideas/psychologists-confront-imposs... Re asymptomatic. Vaccinated people also spread the disease asymptomatically. I have seen zero rigorous studies showing how vaccinated asymptomatic spread compares with unvaccinated asymptomatic spread. No, picking 3 studies and linking data between them is not a replacement for a rigorous RCT. This is a particularly salient question as the biggest selling point of vaccines is that they reduce symptom severity.
- judahmeek 5y ago
  > I have seen zero rigorous studies showing how vaccinated asymptomatic spread compares with unvaccinated asymptomatic spread. [...] This is a particularly salient question as the biggest selling point of vaccines is that they reduce symptom severity. And why are you linking spread & symptom severity?
  - angelzen 5y ago
    Asymptomatic spreader: Person with an active infection that exhibits symptoms under their own personal threshold for self quarantine. Core vaccines observable effect: Reduce manifestation of symptoms in infected persons. It is possible that the vaccinated population has a larger rate and/or absolute numbers of people with no/low symptoms, aka 'asymptomatic spreaders'. It is also possible the other way around. I don't have hard data, nobody else seems to do. Given that I don't actually know, I'm happy to refrain from speculation. I wish I could say the same from the 'any measure that may have some conceivable effect of reducing R0 must be mandated yesterday, or else you are personally responsible for the death of 4M people worldwide, and counting' crowd.
    - judahmeek 5y ago
      > I wish I could say the same from the 'any measure that may have some conceivable effect of reducing R0 must be mandated yesterday, or else you are personally responsible for the death of 4M people worldwide, and counting' crowd. >> This is a particularly salient question as the biggest selling point of vaccines is that they reduce symptom severity. You mean the 'any measure that may have some conceivable effect of reducing symptom severity must be mandated yesterday, or else you are personally responsible for the death of 4M people worldwide, and counting' crowd.

xg15 5y ago

> "There is no scientific proof, e.g. RCT, that lockdowns work. You want to make a randomized, controlled study on entire countries? That's your idea of ethics in science? > That evolutionary pressures on the virus might^H^H^H will cause the vaccines to become less effective was and is the #1 concern of the critics of mass mRNA vaccination campaigns. No, it was one argument of whatever seemed convenient at that point to argue against vaccines. Consequently, their only advice how to cope with that problem seems to basically give up and don't do anything. Honestly, I don't understand what strategy you guys would propose to end the pandemic. Apart from pretending it doesn't exist of course.

angelzen 5y ago
Sometimes I picture a lot of the covid measures as raising sandbag walls in front of a tsunami. Feels good to do something, anything, but the tsunami is going to do its thing, at best delayed a bit. The second the earthquake hit, Sendai was gone. There was nothing anybody could do about it. If that's "pretending it doesn't exist", then so be it. * Vaccines are useful in preventing severe disease. Get one, especially if your are not a child. But they are also fragile and it's anybody's guess how they'll interact with a 'likely vaccine evading variant' (quoting Pfizer CEO here). * It is unclear what effect the vaccines have on the virus evolution. We assume its going to be positive, but have no actual data on it. * It is unclear what effect the vaccines have on disease spread. The big question is the effect of vaccines on the rate of 'asymptomatic spreaders', which may increase under a regimen of reducing symptom severity. * Lockdowns have massive costs. Keeping the world running also saves lives, and it's not at all clear that the balance favors hard covid measures. * Suspended school, masks and social distancing have severe costs in children. I am not sure we thought through the consequences on the next generation. * The scapegoating shaping online is grotesque. Being a fortunate to be born post WW2 world with its bounty of health, I never understood the story of touching the leper. Until the reaction to the covid pandemic finally illuminated my mind. The costs of attempts to cure the disease may be worse than the disease. And the disease is horrible.
- xg15 5y ago
  I think it's an interesting discussion. Thanks for explaining your viewpoint, even if I don't agree with it. But I'd like to ask again: You've listed a lot of points on what not to do. But so what should we do to tackle this virus? A virus that will quickly cause enough severe cases to require triage at hospitals.if left unchecked and that will not go away anymore on its own. Or do you really view this as some sort of slow-motion Armageddon, destinied to bring in the end times - so any resistance is futile on principle?

jlebar 5y ago

> There is no scientific proof, e.g. RCT, that lockdowns work Nor that parachutes work! https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC300808/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC300808/

angelzen 5y ago
Correct!