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I mean, we can go the other way by looking at SpaceX. I spent years reading detailed reports from experts that everything SpaceX was doing was impossible. -A r

I mean, we can go the other way by looking at SpaceX. I spent years reading detailed reports from experts that everything SpaceX was doing was impossible. -A rocket made of steel -Landing a rocket anywhere -Landing a bigger rocket anywhere -Landing a rocket on solid ground -Landing a big rocket on the ground and a lot of smaller things in between. I read many plausible looking reports on the non-feasability of these things often came with the backing of professors at respected universities and they were all wrong. Sometimes it goes the other way.

kube-system 5y ago
I don't disagree. It's a good thing that people are confident that they can achieve things that others deem impossible, especially experts. That's real progress. The part that starts to cross the line is when someone starts making legally significant promises ahead of schedule. Tell stakeholders you're working on it. Tell them you're ahead of everyone else. Tell them that the experts are wrong. Tell them it's coming very soon. Update them on the details of your progress. Don't tell them it's done when it's not.
shadilay 5y ago
It should be noted that the DC-X rocket also landed propulsively in the 90's. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonnell_Douglas_DC-X https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonnell_Douglas_DC-X
hef19898 5y ago
For the risk of being a broken record, nobody claimed that reusable rockets were technically impossible. The argument was that they were rather financially unfeasible due to a limited number of LEO launches, so nobody tried (I lost the ESA study on this from the early 2000s unfortunately...). I'd really love that myth of SpaceX doing the impossible with landing rockets to die. Also because they don't have to, they were the first to do so. That alone is really impressive. Whether or not it is profitable is impossible to tell until SpaceX is publishing audited financials.
- elkos 5y ago
  Also I have to point out that although SpaceX has very competitive prices for market contracts there seems to be a different services and pricing scheme for government contracts. This is not unique in the industry to some extent but since SpaceX has no published audits competitors claim they overcharge the government.
zardo 5y ago
There were definitely no rocket experts claiming rockets can't be made out of steel. That's not a new thing.

kube-system 5y ago

I don't disagree. It's a good thing that people are confident that they can achieve things that others deem impossible, especially experts. That's real progress. The part that starts to cross the line is when someone starts making legally significant promises ahead of schedule. Tell stakeholders you're working on it. Tell them you're ahead of everyone else. Tell them that the experts are wrong. Tell them it's coming very soon. Update them on the details of your progress. Don't tell them it's done when it's not.

shadilay 5y ago

It should be noted that the DC-X rocket also landed propulsively in the 90's. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonnell_Douglas_DC-X https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonnell_Douglas_DC-X

hef19898 5y ago

For the risk of being a broken record, nobody claimed that reusable rockets were technically impossible. The argument was that they were rather financially unfeasible due to a limited number of LEO launches, so nobody tried (I lost the ESA study on this from the early 2000s unfortunately...). I'd really love that myth of SpaceX doing the impossible with landing rockets to die. Also because they don't have to, they were the first to do so. That alone is really impressive. Whether or not it is profitable is impossible to tell until SpaceX is publishing audited financials.

elkos 5y ago
Also I have to point out that although SpaceX has very competitive prices for market contracts there seems to be a different services and pricing scheme for government contracts. This is not unique in the industry to some extent but since SpaceX has no published audits competitors claim they overcharge the government.

zardo 5y ago

There were definitely no rocket experts claiming rockets can't be made out of steel. That's not a new thing.