3 ms·
There's an entire literature on this: clinical versus statistical [actuarial] prediction. It generally finds that statistical/algorithmic methods have the edge
by derbOac 5y ago
There's an entire literature on this: clinical versus statistical [actuarial] prediction.
It generally finds that statistical/algorithmic methods have the edge, although there's some evidence that experts can perform as well in certain limited situations.
There's lots of explanations for the phenomenon that have been discussed.
Still interesting to see in this context.
Unless I'm misreading something, it would have been interesting to do this with a group of people (e.g., get predictions from 5 people and then average them or something--but would that then be nonhuman?)
- Lorenzo_c 5y agoHey all! Together with Stan Dehaene, we recently published a series of studies showing that, indeed, humans have sophisticated abilities at performing mental regression on scatterplots. Also, our data show that they do not minimize the vertical distance of the points to the fit but, instead, the orthogonal one (as in Deming regression). Here's the link to our publication: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001002852100030X https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001002852...
- derbOac 5y agoVery cool. Important work imho.