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> Meanwhile, the world's container ship capacity will have increased by some large factor (30%, 50%) to address the shortage. Possible but I doubt it. Containe
by moonchrome 5y ago
> Meanwhile, the world's container ship capacity will have increased by some large factor (30%, 50%) to address the shortage.
Possible but I doubt it. Container ships take years to build, there are backorders, people ordering them make these forecasts, shipyards were hit by COVID as well, they require all those supplies in short supply right now to start building.
I think the silicon fabs popping up all over the world are not because of the demand spikes necessarily but estimated demand growth, political motives (very few countries are comfortable with current situation of most top end fab capacity being located in Taiwan).
- maxk42 5y agoActually, this is normal in the container shipping industry. Oversupply is the very likely result of this within 24 months. (Likely very much less.). Most of the oversupply typically comes from recycled ships and not new manufacturing. However, even during a downturn new manufacturing doesn't cease because container ships have a very short lifetime. New ships are sold typically in just a few years to smaller operations which in turn resell them again to smaller firms. At the end of their lifetimes, the ships inwill be owned by tiny (typically) East-Asian operators which will spend more time and money jury-rigging them to stay afloat than operating them under contract. The sea is not kind to steel. But when rates are high, even an old clunker can be run profitably, so these small operations with one or two rusting ships which are essentially lemons can continue operating them at a profit until rates dive again.