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Wow. Just looking at the charts from ta perspectives, I'd anticipate: - Minimum 10% drop in US goods spending - Huge drop in China shipping container producti

Wow. Just looking at the charts from ta perspectives, I'd anticipate: - Minimum 10% drop in US goods spending - Huge drop in China shipping container production - Halving of container freight rate between LA and Shanghai - Catastrophic drop in arrangement of freight and cargo prices (PPI) - Jump in US home foreclosures - Drop in emerging market capital inflows - Worker training starting to catch up with business demand - Drop in mfg delivery times - Massive volatility opportunity/chaos, or both, depending on how you see it Possible timelines for these changes do look really close, likely surging early 2022. Probably scary news coming around that time (not reflecting causality so much, as in "scary events cause drops"; you could even read the news as a natural outcome of the drops) Not making any comments here as to good/bad or causality. It looks more like natural shakeouts that could allow for helpful interventions or follow-on effects, depending. For governments, I'd think now is the time to get creative, protecting and planning for homeowners and vulnerable populations and businesses as much possible. The above is speculation... Follow-on predictions - Crypto is going to boom again by early 2022 minimum. Elevator is going up. - Political volatility could get exciting again in the US. - How is political volatility going to show up in PRC? I guess I'd look for more strong moves by government to see where their fears are. - Local business reopening coupons and deals will take off as COVID pressure eases - (I am very bullish wrt US economic growth beyond 2022, we'll see what the catalysts may be. Long-term US is headed toward stabilization psychology, return of the gold watch after consolidation phase(s), IMO) (Downvote if uncomfortable, I claim no crystal ball...)

tomcam 5y ago
Upvoted b/c it feels very well thought out and summarized the article brilliantly. And because I don't know if I agree with you politically, which makes it an even more valuable assessment to me (because I'm not prejudging).
- themodelplumber 5y ago
  Thanks for your comment. I don't even know if I agree with myself politically. I don't claim any position on the spectrum and would rather transcend it than find a place to stay. In my professional training I was taught to watch how human psychology and control dynamics emerge from less-conscious zones of human perception and judgment. To me this paints a different picture of politics than I think most would acknowledge.
  - ironSkillet 5y ago
    Very well said regarding politics - I have trouble having useful political discussions with almost anyone, right or left, because everything is now framed as "good" vs "evil" or "enlightened" vs "sheep" instead of actually taking stock of the forces of psychology, economics, and legitimately different values that are really driving the political environment we live in.
    - tomcam 5y ago
      Yes. I would love to engage in a civil way but find it literally impossible except with people who agree with me... so why bother?
  - toss1 5y ago
    What are your thoughts on the likelihood of success of the push from the right to implement minority control in US politics? If successful, this could have large consequences.
    - tomcam 5y ago
      What's happening there? Haven't heard of it.
    - themodelplumber 5y ago
      It takes me out of my big-picture wheelhouse, so I personally find it harder (because less energy-yielding/interesting) to follow this kind of thing. I definitely noticed how much the US right began to project a mighty image in the last couple decades, the imagery and storytelling of which took on a rather fantastic, near-pornographic character. In off-the-cuff analyses of its storytellers' psychology, I found that they were uniformly less depth-oriented than impact-oriented. To me this is almost never good news in terms of actual might. I could also see a massive return to centrism as the human-group organism feels around for equilibrium. Really spitballin' here though. Sorry I can't really speculate in more precise terms on that issue.
  - tomcam 5y ago
scubbo 5y ago
What is "the gold watch" in this context? It is, understandably, a difficult phrase to Google for! I did find this[0], which refers to it without explanation. [0] https://talkmarkets.com/content/economics--politics/inflation-keynes-the-gold-watch-and-everything?post=324028 https://talkmarkets.com/content/economics--politics/inflatio...
- themodelplumber 5y ago
  This is just my opinion: Businesses will once again normalize long-term employee care. (The US government will likely have to subsidize this or in some way incentivize it) The gold watch refers to the past standard of offering employees a gold watch upon retirement. It symbolizes stronger bonds between employer and employee. This type of thinking will come back, maybe not with a gold watch, but this type of stabilized care for the members of society and especially social circles (of which a business will be one) will return. IMO part of the driver/incentive will be a mutual fear on the part of both business and employee, causing a tight love-embrace so to speak. There are trade-offs though. For one, tech and stabilization are not known to be very good at coexisting (yet). I see the global economy coming off a local tech high, with some important lessons learned about what a business should be and how people should treat each other. Again, no crystal ball. But I believe we are right in the middle of a global psychological shift. It will take time to settle and when it does, poof, a new era.
  - tomcam 5y ago
    > This type of thinking will come back Disagree, and I hope desperately I'm wrong. The reason is simple. Here in the USA the legal environment makes it dangerous to be an employer. You can get sued for any damn thing, and some areas (such as sexual harassment or workers comp) are guilty-until-proven-innocent. On the flip side, employers have an incentive to (immorally) fire someone just before retirement so they can avoid paying a pension, should one even exist. Not sure how these things would change.
    - themodelplumber 5y ago
      The current legal environment, sure. But I think government can and will change those things, especially while holding in its hands the future of massive corporations which show themselves willing to engage with a reasonable social contract. Gov > biz is making and will continue to make a huge comeback in the US.
paulpauper 5y ago
Crypto does poorly in market volatility and uncertainty.
- puzzlingcaptcha 5y ago
  Exactly, crypto has been a speculative, risk-on asset for the past few years, despite what crypto fans say. The correlation between SPX and BTC is uncanny.

tomcam 5y ago

Upvoted b/c it feels very well thought out and summarized the article brilliantly. And because I don't know if I agree with you politically, which makes it an even more valuable assessment to me (because I'm not prejudging).

themodelplumber 5y ago
Thanks for your comment. I don't even know if I agree with myself politically. I don't claim any position on the spectrum and would rather transcend it than find a place to stay. In my professional training I was taught to watch how human psychology and control dynamics emerge from less-conscious zones of human perception and judgment. To me this paints a different picture of politics than I think most would acknowledge.
- ironSkillet 5y ago
  Very well said regarding politics - I have trouble having useful political discussions with almost anyone, right or left, because everything is now framed as "good" vs "evil" or "enlightened" vs "sheep" instead of actually taking stock of the forces of psychology, economics, and legitimately different values that are really driving the political environment we live in.
  - tomcam 5y ago
    Yes. I would love to engage in a civil way but find it literally impossible except with people who agree with me... so why bother?
- toss1 5y ago
  What are your thoughts on the likelihood of success of the push from the right to implement minority control in US politics? If successful, this could have large consequences.
  - tomcam 5y ago
    What's happening there? Haven't heard of it.
  - themodelplumber 5y ago
    It takes me out of my big-picture wheelhouse, so I personally find it harder (because less energy-yielding/interesting) to follow this kind of thing. I definitely noticed how much the US right began to project a mighty image in the last couple decades, the imagery and storytelling of which took on a rather fantastic, near-pornographic character. In off-the-cuff analyses of its storytellers' psychology, I found that they were uniformly less depth-oriented than impact-oriented. To me this is almost never good news in terms of actual might. I could also see a massive return to centrism as the human-group organism feels around for equilibrium. Really spitballin' here though. Sorry I can't really speculate in more precise terms on that issue.
- tomcam 5y ago

scubbo 5y ago

What is "the gold watch" in this context? It is, understandably, a difficult phrase to Google for! I did find this[0], which refers to it without explanation. [0] https://talkmarkets.com/content/economics--politics/inflation-keynes-the-gold-watch-and-everything?post=324028 https://talkmarkets.com/content/economics--politics/inflatio...

themodelplumber 5y ago
This is just my opinion: Businesses will once again normalize long-term employee care. (The US government will likely have to subsidize this or in some way incentivize it) The gold watch refers to the past standard of offering employees a gold watch upon retirement. It symbolizes stronger bonds between employer and employee. This type of thinking will come back, maybe not with a gold watch, but this type of stabilized care for the members of society and especially social circles (of which a business will be one) will return. IMO part of the driver/incentive will be a mutual fear on the part of both business and employee, causing a tight love-embrace so to speak. There are trade-offs though. For one, tech and stabilization are not known to be very good at coexisting (yet). I see the global economy coming off a local tech high, with some important lessons learned about what a business should be and how people should treat each other. Again, no crystal ball. But I believe we are right in the middle of a global psychological shift. It will take time to settle and when it does, poof, a new era.
- tomcam 5y ago
  > This type of thinking will come back Disagree, and I hope desperately I'm wrong. The reason is simple. Here in the USA the legal environment makes it dangerous to be an employer. You can get sued for any damn thing, and some areas (such as sexual harassment or workers comp) are guilty-until-proven-innocent. On the flip side, employers have an incentive to (immorally) fire someone just before retirement so they can avoid paying a pension, should one even exist. Not sure how these things would change.
  - themodelplumber 5y ago
    The current legal environment, sure. But I think government can and will change those things, especially while holding in its hands the future of massive corporations which show themselves willing to engage with a reasonable social contract. Gov > biz is making and will continue to make a huge comeback in the US.

paulpauper 5y ago

Crypto does poorly in market volatility and uncertainty.

puzzlingcaptcha 5y ago
Exactly, crypto has been a speculative, risk-on asset for the past few years, despite what crypto fans say. The correlation between SPX and BTC is uncanny.