No, using past risk as a prediction for future risk is not crazy, and should put you in at least the same ballpark as the real risk. And since the risk of covi

No, using past risk as a prediction for future risk is not crazy, and should put you in at least the same ballpark as the real risk. And since the risk of covid is extremely age-stratified and depending on risk factors, the correct answer can vary up to five magnitudes depending on who you're asking, which this poll also doesn't address. So even though the correct answer for the question in the poll is heavily skewed upwards by being the calculated mean, most Americans still overestimate the actual risk by up to two magnitudes. For all the talk this year about political divides due to not sharing the same objective reality, that's an astounding amount of wrong from the side that claims to be on the same side as science.