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The correct answer is 1.6% for the unvaccinated, and 0.005% for the vaccinated. Among Democrat voters, 95% overestimate the hospitalization risk for the unvacc

The correct answer is 1.6% for the unvaccinated, and 0.005% for the vaccinated. Among Democrat voters, 95% overestimate the hospitalization risk for the unvaccinated, 78% are more than 10x wrong, and 41% of them are 50x wrong. Republican voters are better at estimating the risk, but they still skew heavily towards overestimating the risk, although a noticeable portion of them are underestimating it. There's been a massive campaign against "misinformation" throughout this entire pandemic, case numbers and death numbers are widely available, so why are Americans overwhelmingly flat out wrong on this statistic?

MatteoFrigo 5y ago
I don't know where you are getting your "correct" answer, but the numbers you are reporting don't seem to agree with reality. For example, recent data from the UK https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1019992/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_38.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/... shows [Table 2] that the probability of a case given {vaccinated, unvaccinated} is within a factor of 5 of each other (in fact, for some age groups, the probability of being a "case" is higher for the vaccinated). Also, the probability of being hospitalized is within a factor of 10 between the two groups for all ages [Table 3]. There is no way to get the three orders of magnitude difference that you quote given these figures. > why are Americans overwhelmingly flat out wrong on this statistic? Speaking for myself, if somebody called my phone out of the blue to ask me a stupid question (are you republican or democrat? what's the probability of hospitalization?) I would make up an answer just to troll them. I would probably mention Bill Gates' chips as well. What's my incentive to tell the truth, given that I believe that all polls and media are a bunch of liars?
- henrikschroder 5y ago
  > I don't know where you are getting your "correct" answer They're right in the article, check the appendix.

MatteoFrigo 5y ago

I don't know where you are getting your "correct" answer, but the numbers you are reporting don't seem to agree with reality. For example, recent data from the UK https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1019992/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_38.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/... shows [Table 2] that the probability of a case given {vaccinated, unvaccinated} is within a factor of 5 of each other (in fact, for some age groups, the probability of being a "case" is higher for the vaccinated). Also, the probability of being hospitalized is within a factor of 10 between the two groups for all ages [Table 3]. There is no way to get the three orders of magnitude difference that you quote given these figures. > why are Americans overwhelmingly flat out wrong on this statistic? Speaking for myself, if somebody called my phone out of the blue to ask me a stupid question (are you republican or democrat? what's the probability of hospitalization?) I would make up an answer just to troll them. I would probably mention Bill Gates' chips as well. What's my incentive to tell the truth, given that I believe that all polls and media are a bunch of liars?

henrikschroder 5y ago
> I don't know where you are getting your "correct" answer They're right in the article, check the appendix.