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I would take the same data and argue that government social welfare programs lead to political unrest. When you start to take away the free government benefits

I would take the same data and argue that government social welfare programs lead to political unrest. When you start to take away the free government benefits that the underclass has grown to depend upon, you cause stability. It is analogous to withdrawals symptoms during an intervention on a drug addiction. Don't blame the doctor for the patient's withdrawal symptoms, blame the drug addiction.

_delirium 15y ago
The hypothesis that social unrest is primarily the result of withdrawal of social programs, rather than simply their absence, should mean that we fail to see riots when the social programs didn't exit in the first place. But there are plenty of examples of riots predating a strong social safety net; for example, the Haymarket riots in the United States. I don't see any historical evidence for the claim that stability typically accompanies lack of social programs.
- yummyfajitas 15y ago
  The article claims a correlation between withdrawal of social programs, not a hard and fast rule. Pointing out a single data point which goes against the trend does not invalidate the statistical claims.
  - _delirium 15y ago
    The post I was replying to has no statistical claims. My example was illustrative; the broader point is that to advance a hypothesis that riots accompany withdrawal of social safety nets, but not their absence, you would need to show a general lack of riots in periods where social safety nets didn't exist in the first place. But there are thousands of examples of riots in countries and periods with no social safety nets; the Haymarket riots are just one random example. Perhaps it is possible to perform a statistical analysis that shows that the absence of social safety nets does still, in general, produce stability, but I haven't seen one put forth. The linked article certainly does not include any data relevant to that hypothesis.
    - yummyfajitas 15y ago
      The original article claims that a % change in social benefits is a strong predictor of riots. I'm assuming that by choosing to focus on this factor, the article intends to imply that it is the strongest predictor within their data set. If that is the case, then the number of riots is related more strongly to withdrawal of benefits than to their base levels. This would support joshuaheard's claims, though of course it doesn't rule out the possibility that riots(social benefit levels) is a nonlinear function, increasing near 0 and flat in the regime where the original dataset lived.
Hoff 15y ago
It's not just the "underclass" that benefits, BTW. The "overclass" (continuing with your phrasing) is also dependent on various forms of social welfare. Most recently through socialized business losses and corporate bailouts (qv: TBTF, zombie banks, federal discount window rates), on complex tax policies (qv: "double irish", etc), on expenditures on "nation building" and "police actions" and related distortions, and indirectly through qualitative easing and depressed exchange rates and policies that can move jobs and capital offshore. And that's before you get to discussions around the mortgage deductions and other forms of social welfare, which are aimed at homeowners and particularly at the rates that banks can charge. Or at whether or not there will be any number of prosecutions for securities fraud, or investors in failed entities getting their hair cut, or around that national candidates can measure campaign contributions in the multi-millions or now billions of dollars, or any increase in market transparency or the effects of HFT on the market. (This is probably the most pernicious form of social welfare, as a crooked system leaches out the money; business continues, but a lack of trust costs everybody.) And while I doubt that these "overclass" social programs will see particular cuts, this largesse can also lead to social unrest. (Though usually not among the recipients of this largesse.) Is there a simple answer? No. But a discussion of "underclass" and "social welfare programs" without a corresponding discussion of "overclass" and "corporate welfare programs" and related is playing directly into the divisive political kabuki, and not likely working toward a solution.

_delirium 15y ago

The hypothesis that social unrest is primarily the result of withdrawal of social programs, rather than simply their absence, should mean that we fail to see riots when the social programs didn't exit in the first place. But there are plenty of examples of riots predating a strong social safety net; for example, the Haymarket riots in the United States. I don't see any historical evidence for the claim that stability typically accompanies lack of social programs.

yummyfajitas 15y ago
The article claims a correlation between withdrawal of social programs, not a hard and fast rule. Pointing out a single data point which goes against the trend does not invalidate the statistical claims.
- _delirium 15y ago
  The post I was replying to has no statistical claims. My example was illustrative; the broader point is that to advance a hypothesis that riots accompany withdrawal of social safety nets, but not their absence, you would need to show a general lack of riots in periods where social safety nets didn't exist in the first place. But there are thousands of examples of riots in countries and periods with no social safety nets; the Haymarket riots are just one random example. Perhaps it is possible to perform a statistical analysis that shows that the absence of social safety nets does still, in general, produce stability, but I haven't seen one put forth. The linked article certainly does not include any data relevant to that hypothesis.
  - yummyfajitas 15y ago
    The original article claims that a % change in social benefits is a strong predictor of riots. I'm assuming that by choosing to focus on this factor, the article intends to imply that it is the strongest predictor within their data set. If that is the case, then the number of riots is related more strongly to withdrawal of benefits than to their base levels. This would support joshuaheard's claims, though of course it doesn't rule out the possibility that riots(social benefit levels) is a nonlinear function, increasing near 0 and flat in the regime where the original dataset lived.

Hoff 15y ago

It's not just the "underclass" that benefits, BTW. The "overclass" (continuing with your phrasing) is also dependent on various forms of social welfare. Most recently through socialized business losses and corporate bailouts (qv: TBTF, zombie banks, federal discount window rates), on complex tax policies (qv: "double irish", etc), on expenditures on "nation building" and "police actions" and related distortions, and indirectly through qualitative easing and depressed exchange rates and policies that can move jobs and capital offshore. And that's before you get to discussions around the mortgage deductions and other forms of social welfare, which are aimed at homeowners and particularly at the rates that banks can charge. Or at whether or not there will be any number of prosecutions for securities fraud, or investors in failed entities getting their hair cut, or around that national candidates can measure campaign contributions in the multi-millions or now billions of dollars, or any increase in market transparency or the effects of HFT on the market. (This is probably the most pernicious form of social welfare, as a crooked system leaches out the money; business continues, but a lack of trust costs everybody.) And while I doubt that these "overclass" social programs will see particular cuts, this largesse can also lead to social unrest. (Though usually not among the recipients of this largesse.) Is there a simple answer? No. But a discussion of "underclass" and "social welfare programs" without a corresponding discussion of "overclass" and "corporate welfare programs" and related is playing directly into the divisive political kabuki, and not likely working toward a solution.