4 ms·

>That was supposed to be 2021. And 2020 before that. And 2019. Remember in 2018 how GM was going to kill Tesla because the Bolt beat the Model 3 to market by li

>That was supposed to be 2021. And 2020 before that. And 2019. Remember in 2018 how GM was going to kill Tesla because the Bolt beat the Model 3 to market by like five months? Said who? There are a lot of people out there saying all kinds of things on the internet. This is nothing more than a strawman argument. Personally, I was never under the impression that the Bolt EV was going to "kill" Tesla, but I can only speak for myself. Anyways, that's all tangential. Just about every major automaker has announced that they are transitioning to EVs within the next decade or so. Further, in a growing number of countries, these manufacturers are legislatively bound to fully transition to EVs by either 2030 or 2035 (depending on the jurisdiction). So unless you believe that for whatever reason automakers will not be able to figure out how to build EVs, the tipping point is going to come sooner or later. The exact date really doesn't matter.

pmorici 5y ago
I believe many will go bankrupt.
ajross 5y ago
> Said who? There are a lot of people out there saying all kinds of things on the internet. Coverage like this (from 2016 in this case, well before either car shipped) was pervasive: https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-bolts-range-is-a-buzz-kill-for-tesla-bulls-1473784365 https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-bolts-range-is-a-buzz-kill-... Just read that and keep in mind the actual cars that shipped, and their sales volume. Also keep in mind how the framing of the argument ("Tesla's clock is ticking") is almost identical to the grandparent post written five years later! I don't know that it's really worth arguing that the tenor of Tesla coverage in business and auto press has been outrageously negative for years and years. And... it's been wrong basically every time.
Robotbeat 5y ago
I think a lot of people have memory-holed this stuff for some reason, but "Tesla killer" predictions are incredibly common for every year over the last entire decade (here's one from 2011: https://www.businessinsider.com/nissan-esflow-photos-2011-2 https://www.businessinsider.com/nissan-esflow-photos-2011-2) And yeah, a common thing said is that major automakers will just crush Tesla when they decide to make electric cars. But Tesla is now producing almost 1 million EVs per year. This is no longer a company that doesn't know what they're doing when it comes to mass manufacturing, and it has turned out to be much harder to market and manufacture a lot of compelling EVs even for major automakers like GM (see the Bolt recalls... I'm not worried about GM long term just due to this recall, but it should make it clear it's not trivial for a traditional automaker to bring an EV to mass manufacture). 2011: https://www.businessinsider.com/nissan-esflow-photos-2011-2# https://www.businessinsider.com/nissan-esflow-photos-2011-2# 2013: https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1088628_chevy-volt-owners-drive-more-electric-miles-than-nissan-leaf-drivers-why https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1088628_chevy-volt-owne... 2014: https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/bmw-s-tesla-killer-first-ride-new-power-edrive-plug-hybrid https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/bmw-s-tesla-kill... Bolt being called the Tesla killer in 2015: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2015/01/11/gm-chevrolet-bolt-tesla/21595233/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2015/01/11/gm-chev... ...and that's enough. It's most certainly not a strawman after a decade of these predictions being wrong and, if anything, Tesla is more dominant in EVs than ever.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]

pmorici 5y ago

I believe many will go bankrupt.

ajross 5y ago

> Said who? There are a lot of people out there saying all kinds of things on the internet. Coverage like this (from 2016 in this case, well before either car shipped) was pervasive: https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-bolts-range-is-a-buzz-kill-for-tesla-bulls-1473784365 https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-bolts-range-is-a-buzz-kill-... Just read that and keep in mind the actual cars that shipped, and their sales volume. Also keep in mind how the framing of the argument ("Tesla's clock is ticking") is almost identical to the grandparent post written five years later! I don't know that it's really worth arguing that the tenor of Tesla coverage in business and auto press has been outrageously negative for years and years. And... it's been wrong basically every time.

Robotbeat 5y ago

I think a lot of people have memory-holed this stuff for some reason, but "Tesla killer" predictions are incredibly common for every year over the last entire decade (here's one from 2011: https://www.businessinsider.com/nissan-esflow-photos-2011-2 https://www.businessinsider.com/nissan-esflow-photos-2011-2) And yeah, a common thing said is that major automakers will just crush Tesla when they decide to make electric cars. But Tesla is now producing almost 1 million EVs per year. This is no longer a company that doesn't know what they're doing when it comes to mass manufacturing, and it has turned out to be much harder to market and manufacture a lot of compelling EVs even for major automakers like GM (see the Bolt recalls... I'm not worried about GM long term just due to this recall, but it should make it clear it's not trivial for a traditional automaker to bring an EV to mass manufacture). 2011: https://www.businessinsider.com/nissan-esflow-photos-2011-2# https://www.businessinsider.com/nissan-esflow-photos-2011-2# 2013: https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1088628_chevy-volt-owners-drive-more-electric-miles-than-nissan-leaf-drivers-why https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1088628_chevy-volt-owne... 2014: https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/bmw-s-tesla-killer-first-ride-new-power-edrive-plug-hybrid https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/bmw-s-tesla-kill... Bolt being called the Tesla killer in 2015: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2015/01/11/gm-chevrolet-bolt-tesla/21595233/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2015/01/11/gm-chev... ...and that's enough. It's most certainly not a strawman after a decade of these predictions being wrong and, if anything, Tesla is more dominant in EVs than ever.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]