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I think 2022 is going to be the year that we really see legacy car manufacturers come out with truly competitive EV options. I think the legacy manufacturers

I think 2022 is going to be the year that we really see legacy car manufacturers come out with truly competitive EV options. I think the legacy manufacturers are targeting a different market than Tesla and you can see this with the F150 vs Cyber truck. The Cyber Truck is positioning itself as a lifestyle truck while the F150 is positioning itself as a workhorse truck. Both are legitimate but distinctive markets. Legacy manufacturers are catching up on range. I think the next thing they'll need to tackle is charging network, but if they can do that I don't see Tesla's moat lasting as long as people expect once the EV market expands to the general public.

jude- 5y ago
The F150 is arguably a lifestyle truck these days. But that's okay -- it probably makes it easier to build an electronic version that can do what its owners expect of it.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- kube-system 5y ago
  The F-series has traditionally had very strong commercial sales, even compared to other pickup trucks.
  - throwawayboise 5y ago
    Yes and Ford caters to both markets. You can get a bare-bones F150 work truck with only federally-required features or you can get one that's as fully appointed as a Cadillac with comfort accessories.
    - syshum 5y ago
      Or you can get a happy medium... F150 is about the most customizable from the factory vehicle sold, one of the reasons it is soo popular.
ajross 5y ago
> I think 2022 is going to be the year that we really see legacy car manufacturers come out with truly competitive EV options. That was supposed to be 2021. And 2020 before that. And 2019. Remember in 2018 how GM was going to kill Tesla because the Bolt beat the Model 3 to market by like five months? (Remember when people genuinely felt the Bolt was going to be competitive with the 3?) > I don't see Tesla's moat lasting as long as people expect once the EV market expands to the general public. Maybe 2022 is the year. But... I'm not holding my breath.
- sixQuarks 5y ago
  Exactly, these are such tired arguments by people that honestly do not keep up with Tesla. HN for some odd reason has a bias against Elon Musk and Tesla, a lot of people on here hope they fail. SMH
- stephen_g 5y ago
  I think the moves to start banning the sale of ICE cars post 2030 or 2035 is going to start making a huge difference pretty quickly. There are definitely some compelling models on the horizon already, but now any laggards in the industry have to start moving right now. It still could take three or four years for EV prices to come down to being generally affordable across the industry, but I’m pretty excited about some of the cars due to release over the next six months or so.
- hn_throwaway_99 5y ago
  > Remember in 2018 how GM was going to kill Tesla because the Bolt beat the Model 3 to market by like five months? Umm, no? That sounds like a straw man to me. I have been a Chevy Volt owner for a while now, and I love that car, and I certainly followed the news when the Bolt came along, and I don't remember anyone saying it was a "Tesla killer" (though, it's the Internet, I'm sure someone said that somewhere). I especially don't remember any "non-EV gearheads" (maybe EV gearhead is an oxymoron?) giving 2 shits about the Bolt. I contrast that with the F-150 Lightning or the Mustang Mach-E, where I have "truck lover" family members who have never cared about EVs putting down deposits for the F-150. Regardless of whether one chooses to anoint 2022 as "the year of X", it's clear to me that at least the EVs being offered (now or in the near future) by the legacy manufacturers are fundamentally way more compelling than previous options like the Bolt.
mdorazio 5y ago
This depends what you mean by "truly competitive". I work in this space and we're expecting the real turning point to be around 2025 for the mass market unless the infrastructure bill gets passed as-is with the massive incentive for BEVs, in which case it would pull that forward by ~1 year.
GrimRe 5y ago
Where are these cars going to come from in 2022? Which manufacturer is going to produce and sell more than 150,000 (i.e. 1/10th that of Tesla) next year?
01100011 5y ago
I've been driving a 2019 Bolt for over a week now. I bought out the final year of the lease from a friend who didn't need the car anymore. Now I wish I had just purchased one. Battery scandal aside(affecting 13? vehicles so far), I'm really happy with the car. It has a couple small quirks, but so far so good. Granted, I've only been a passenger in a Tesla, but from what I've seen, GM is already competitive.
- AmericanChopper 5y ago
  I’ve test driven a few higher end EV, and the objection I can’t possible get past is the lack of physical controls. I guess Tesla made “everything on a touchscreen” popular, but I really hate it. I hate it in the Tesla, but it’s even worse in other models. The screen in the Tesla at least seems decently made to me, but the one in the Taycan I drove was a laggy PoS. From the drivers seat of the ICE car I currently drive, I can use my hands to control basically everything without taking my eyes off the road. This hasn’t been possible in any of the EVs I’ve driven. I think some of the more affordable models have more traditional central consoles, but I don’t really want a low end EV… I expect all my sales objections to EVs will disappear over time, as the technology and infrastructure improves. But that’s one I’m never getting over. I just can’t imagine I’ll ever buy a car where everything’s controlled by touch screens.
  - pmorici 5y ago
    I thought I would hate that too but got over it quickly with the Tesla. All the controls you need while driving are on the wheel voice control works really well too
    - prirun 5y ago
      As many times as speech-to-text on a phone has garbled my message, it gives me the shivers to think about controlling my car with voice commands. "NO! I only said inverse, not reverse!"
      - pmorici 5y ago
ethbr0 5y ago
The biggest thing shooting Tesla in the foot is plug standard. Eventually, they'll have to adopt CCS in the US and switch over their chargers. Gas stations aren't iPhone power adapters. You can't sell more cars than GM + Toyota + Ford + Stellantis + Honda + Hyundai + Nissan. And eventually, they're all going to convert most of their lines to electric. At which point, new charger installs use the standard. At which point, customers start asking whether they'd buy a car with a standard charger, or a Tesla.
- aksss 5y ago
  Sounds like there's a market for a Tesla dongle
  - Rebelgecko 5y ago
    You'd also have to figure out how to circumvent the Supercharger station's DRM
    - natch 5y ago
      It’s not so much DRM as authentication, seamless zero-user-interaction payment, safety, and charging protocols. You’d also need a Tesla account with a credit card on file, and the ability for your vehicle to identify itself as the vehicle associated with that account. Or… Tesla might just make it happen, in the future.
      - bobthepanda 5y ago
        I feel like they will. Eventually, the market for EV will be so large that they may as well try and get everyone they can on the chargers, the same way that iTunes on Windows was primarily to grab a huge chunk of the digital music market.
  - pmorici 5y ago
    Supposedly Tesla already has one but they barely have capacity for there own fleet let alone everyone else’s and they are building superchargers at a rapid pace
TrainedMonkey 5y ago
I don't totally buy it myself, but there is a case for polar opposite market segment targeting. Cybertruck is positioning itself as a stainless steel workhorse capable of operating in in adverse conditions with little maintenance. Whether it will live up to Elon's forward looking statements is anyones guess. While F150 is positioning itself as electric truck for people who buy Ford trucks... which could be reduced to a lifestyle choice.
- nappy 5y ago
  The hybrid F-150 with an onboard generator and all electric F-150 are being positioned for people who need to do serious work, like arc welding, or for whom a mobile power plant is useful.
  - natch 5y ago
    Didn’t the Cybertruck announce features like 220 power and built in compressor long before Ford marketing started copying the ideas?
- rootsudo 5y ago
  Disagree, F150 is more for fleet, labor, handyman, "serious" work. The cybertruck looks cool, but it lacks many features that are needed for daily usage for an actual laborer/worker. Not at all bad, but working on the field, the cybertruck already falls short to Ford in many aspects.
  - cdash 5y ago
    I guess you haven't met modern truck owners.
    - tclancy 5y ago
      What does this mean?
      - smiley1437 5y ago
zz865 5y ago
VW id4 rocks already
devwastaken 5y ago
Auto makers of old already did this years ago. They put subpar effort into vehicles, sell more of them because brand and existing supply chain, and people hate them. They pull it, and people love the gas models by comparison. We are already seeing this with bad batteries that catch fire spontaneously. They know this will happen, and given enough of it EV batteries will endure restriction if not outright ban from some roads. Ford, nor any other American manufacturer of old can change into a business of lithium batteries and EV design. They lack the R&D or care. You can't take engine nuts and tell them their next project is 4 DC motors with wheels and a big battery. Imagine the racing dialogue: "team A has the 1.1 5 firmware update, giving them a leading edge over team B with a 5% increase in 0 to 60!"
- pornel 5y ago
  I think we're finally past that stage. Legacy automakers stopped stalling with showroom-only dorky space-ship-like prototypes, and half-assed ICE conversions with 10-hour charging (fast charging is fast now.) Automakers have shipped real EV "platforms" (VW MEB, Hyundai E-GMP) and models designed from ground-up to be EVs. These cars are really good.
sandworm101 5y ago
>> lifestyle truck while the F150 is positioning itself as a workhorse truck. The secret that Ford relies upon is that there are no work trucks. The vast majority of pickups in the US will never go off road. They will never pickup a load of lumber from a mill. They will never tow a rescue boat to the seaside. They are all lifestyle trucks. The lesser Ford pickups are cheap because they are essentially cars with large trunks and raised "high command" seating. The more expensive Fords are capable, but are still far more likely to be parked in a suburban garage than on a jobsite. Their sound systems cost more to manufacture than all their optional towing equipment. The secret sauce is to make a truck that looks and sounds tough enough for use in the bush but that in fact is cheaply constructed enough to sell to the masses. I'm not sure Tesla's efforts hit that Ford sweet spot.
- throwawayboise 5y ago
  There absolutely are work trucks, but it's also true that Ford has variants of the F150 for people who want the "look" of a truck but will never take it off road or onto a job site.
  - ethbr0 5y ago
    Also, it's important to differentiate "fleet" from "personal" work trucks. Fleet work trucks are Tacomas with tiny tires, no options, and maybe an extra toolbox in the back. Personal work trucks are however much profit someone needs to offset from operations this year.
- ethbr0 5y ago
  Pavement prima donna is absolutely a category, but I'd say in the last 10 years the needle tends to run the other way. Since Japanese companies moved into the truck market, even the lowest trim domestics are exceedingly capable. And certainly more capable than they were in previous years. (An easy way to date is to see when GM and Ford started putting new engine designs in their trucks, instead of 70s/80s-ancestry powerplants, circa late-90s) It's a pretty competitive market. And as with muscle cars, competition has raised the level of everyone.
johnnyApplePRNG 5y ago
What if the legacy manufacturers used their dealership locations as charging stations? There sure are a lot of them all mostly next to major highways.
nickik 5y ago
> Cyber Truck is positioning itself as a lifestyle truck while the F150 is positioning itself as a workhorse truck Why? Cybertruck is positioning itself as 'tough' even more so then F-150. Its price, and capacity for load and towing make it really good work truck. While many people use F-150 for lifestyle. In my opinion these are basically the same thing for both markets. Its really more about what design you prepare.

jude- 5y ago

The F150 is arguably a lifestyle truck these days. But that's okay -- it probably makes it easier to build an electronic version that can do what its owners expect of it.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
kube-system 5y ago
The F-series has traditionally had very strong commercial sales, even compared to other pickup trucks.
- throwawayboise 5y ago
  Yes and Ford caters to both markets. You can get a bare-bones F150 work truck with only federally-required features or you can get one that's as fully appointed as a Cadillac with comfort accessories.
  - syshum 5y ago
    Or you can get a happy medium... F150 is about the most customizable from the factory vehicle sold, one of the reasons it is soo popular.

ajross 5y ago

> I think 2022 is going to be the year that we really see legacy car manufacturers come out with truly competitive EV options. That was supposed to be 2021. And 2020 before that. And 2019. Remember in 2018 how GM was going to kill Tesla because the Bolt beat the Model 3 to market by like five months? (Remember when people genuinely felt the Bolt was going to be competitive with the 3?) > I don't see Tesla's moat lasting as long as people expect once the EV market expands to the general public. Maybe 2022 is the year. But... I'm not holding my breath.

sixQuarks 5y ago
Exactly, these are such tired arguments by people that honestly do not keep up with Tesla. HN for some odd reason has a bias against Elon Musk and Tesla, a lot of people on here hope they fail. SMH
stephen_g 5y ago
I think the moves to start banning the sale of ICE cars post 2030 or 2035 is going to start making a huge difference pretty quickly. There are definitely some compelling models on the horizon already, but now any laggards in the industry have to start moving right now. It still could take three or four years for EV prices to come down to being generally affordable across the industry, but I’m pretty excited about some of the cars due to release over the next six months or so.
hn_throwaway_99 5y ago
> Remember in 2018 how GM was going to kill Tesla because the Bolt beat the Model 3 to market by like five months? Umm, no? That sounds like a straw man to me. I have been a Chevy Volt owner for a while now, and I love that car, and I certainly followed the news when the Bolt came along, and I don't remember anyone saying it was a "Tesla killer" (though, it's the Internet, I'm sure someone said that somewhere). I especially don't remember any "non-EV gearheads" (maybe EV gearhead is an oxymoron?) giving 2 shits about the Bolt. I contrast that with the F-150 Lightning or the Mustang Mach-E, where I have "truck lover" family members who have never cared about EVs putting down deposits for the F-150. Regardless of whether one chooses to anoint 2022 as "the year of X", it's clear to me that at least the EVs being offered (now or in the near future) by the legacy manufacturers are fundamentally way more compelling than previous options like the Bolt.

mdorazio 5y ago

This depends what you mean by "truly competitive". I work in this space and we're expecting the real turning point to be around 2025 for the mass market unless the infrastructure bill gets passed as-is with the massive incentive for BEVs, in which case it would pull that forward by ~1 year.

GrimRe 5y ago

Where are these cars going to come from in 2022? Which manufacturer is going to produce and sell more than 150,000 (i.e. 1/10th that of Tesla) next year?

01100011 5y ago

I've been driving a 2019 Bolt for over a week now. I bought out the final year of the lease from a friend who didn't need the car anymore. Now I wish I had just purchased one. Battery scandal aside(affecting 13? vehicles so far), I'm really happy with the car. It has a couple small quirks, but so far so good. Granted, I've only been a passenger in a Tesla, but from what I've seen, GM is already competitive.

AmericanChopper 5y ago
I’ve test driven a few higher end EV, and the objection I can’t possible get past is the lack of physical controls. I guess Tesla made “everything on a touchscreen” popular, but I really hate it. I hate it in the Tesla, but it’s even worse in other models. The screen in the Tesla at least seems decently made to me, but the one in the Taycan I drove was a laggy PoS. From the drivers seat of the ICE car I currently drive, I can use my hands to control basically everything without taking my eyes off the road. This hasn’t been possible in any of the EVs I’ve driven. I think some of the more affordable models have more traditional central consoles, but I don’t really want a low end EV… I expect all my sales objections to EVs will disappear over time, as the technology and infrastructure improves. But that’s one I’m never getting over. I just can’t imagine I’ll ever buy a car where everything’s controlled by touch screens.
- pmorici 5y ago
  I thought I would hate that too but got over it quickly with the Tesla. All the controls you need while driving are on the wheel voice control works really well too
  - prirun 5y ago
    As many times as speech-to-text on a phone has garbled my message, it gives me the shivers to think about controlling my car with voice commands. "NO! I only said inverse, not reverse!"
    - pmorici 5y ago

ethbr0 5y ago

The biggest thing shooting Tesla in the foot is plug standard. Eventually, they'll have to adopt CCS in the US and switch over their chargers. Gas stations aren't iPhone power adapters. You can't sell more cars than GM + Toyota + Ford + Stellantis + Honda + Hyundai + Nissan. And eventually, they're all going to convert most of their lines to electric. At which point, new charger installs use the standard. At which point, customers start asking whether they'd buy a car with a standard charger, or a Tesla.

aksss 5y ago
Sounds like there's a market for a Tesla dongle
- Rebelgecko 5y ago
  You'd also have to figure out how to circumvent the Supercharger station's DRM
  - natch 5y ago
    It’s not so much DRM as authentication, seamless zero-user-interaction payment, safety, and charging protocols. You’d also need a Tesla account with a credit card on file, and the ability for your vehicle to identify itself as the vehicle associated with that account. Or… Tesla might just make it happen, in the future.
    - bobthepanda 5y ago
      I feel like they will. Eventually, the market for EV will be so large that they may as well try and get everyone they can on the chargers, the same way that iTunes on Windows was primarily to grab a huge chunk of the digital music market.
- pmorici 5y ago
  Supposedly Tesla already has one but they barely have capacity for there own fleet let alone everyone else’s and they are building superchargers at a rapid pace

TrainedMonkey 5y ago

I don't totally buy it myself, but there is a case for polar opposite market segment targeting. Cybertruck is positioning itself as a stainless steel workhorse capable of operating in in adverse conditions with little maintenance. Whether it will live up to Elon's forward looking statements is anyones guess. While F150 is positioning itself as electric truck for people who buy Ford trucks... which could be reduced to a lifestyle choice.

nappy 5y ago
The hybrid F-150 with an onboard generator and all electric F-150 are being positioned for people who need to do serious work, like arc welding, or for whom a mobile power plant is useful.
- natch 5y ago
  Didn’t the Cybertruck announce features like 220 power and built in compressor long before Ford marketing started copying the ideas?
rootsudo 5y ago
Disagree, F150 is more for fleet, labor, handyman, "serious" work. The cybertruck looks cool, but it lacks many features that are needed for daily usage for an actual laborer/worker. Not at all bad, but working on the field, the cybertruck already falls short to Ford in many aspects.
- cdash 5y ago
  I guess you haven't met modern truck owners.
  - tclancy 5y ago
    What does this mean?
    - smiley1437 5y ago

zz865 5y ago

VW id4 rocks already

devwastaken 5y ago

Auto makers of old already did this years ago. They put subpar effort into vehicles, sell more of them because brand and existing supply chain, and people hate them. They pull it, and people love the gas models by comparison. We are already seeing this with bad batteries that catch fire spontaneously. They know this will happen, and given enough of it EV batteries will endure restriction if not outright ban from some roads. Ford, nor any other American manufacturer of old can change into a business of lithium batteries and EV design. They lack the R&D or care. You can't take engine nuts and tell them their next project is 4 DC motors with wheels and a big battery. Imagine the racing dialogue: "team A has the 1.1 5 firmware update, giving them a leading edge over team B with a 5% increase in 0 to 60!"

pornel 5y ago
I think we're finally past that stage. Legacy automakers stopped stalling with showroom-only dorky space-ship-like prototypes, and half-assed ICE conversions with 10-hour charging (fast charging is fast now.) Automakers have shipped real EV "platforms" (VW MEB, Hyundai E-GMP) and models designed from ground-up to be EVs. These cars are really good.

sandworm101 5y ago

>> lifestyle truck while the F150 is positioning itself as a workhorse truck. The secret that Ford relies upon is that there are no work trucks. The vast majority of pickups in the US will never go off road. They will never pickup a load of lumber from a mill. They will never tow a rescue boat to the seaside. They are all lifestyle trucks. The lesser Ford pickups are cheap because they are essentially cars with large trunks and raised "high command" seating. The more expensive Fords are capable, but are still far more likely to be parked in a suburban garage than on a jobsite. Their sound systems cost more to manufacture than all their optional towing equipment. The secret sauce is to make a truck that looks and sounds tough enough for use in the bush but that in fact is cheaply constructed enough to sell to the masses. I'm not sure Tesla's efforts hit that Ford sweet spot.

throwawayboise 5y ago
There absolutely are work trucks, but it's also true that Ford has variants of the F150 for people who want the "look" of a truck but will never take it off road or onto a job site.
- ethbr0 5y ago
  Also, it's important to differentiate "fleet" from "personal" work trucks. Fleet work trucks are Tacomas with tiny tires, no options, and maybe an extra toolbox in the back. Personal work trucks are however much profit someone needs to offset from operations this year.
ethbr0 5y ago
Pavement prima donna is absolutely a category, but I'd say in the last 10 years the needle tends to run the other way. Since Japanese companies moved into the truck market, even the lowest trim domestics are exceedingly capable. And certainly more capable than they were in previous years. (An easy way to date is to see when GM and Ford started putting new engine designs in their trucks, instead of 70s/80s-ancestry powerplants, circa late-90s) It's a pretty competitive market. And as with muscle cars, competition has raised the level of everyone.

johnnyApplePRNG 5y ago

What if the legacy manufacturers used their dealership locations as charging stations? There sure are a lot of them all mostly next to major highways.

nickik 5y ago

> Cyber Truck is positioning itself as a lifestyle truck while the F150 is positioning itself as a workhorse truck Why? Cybertruck is positioning itself as 'tough' even more so then F-150. Its price, and capacity for load and towing make it really good work truck. While many people use F-150 for lifestyle. In my opinion these are basically the same thing for both markets. Its really more about what design you prepare.