6 ms·

My understanding is that the data indicate that children do not transmit Covid as easily as adults, so the situation is a bit more subtle than you seem to sugge

My understanding is that the data indicate that children do not transmit Covid as easily as adults, so the situation is a bit more subtle than you seem to suggest here.

Gibbon1 5y ago
Only true of Covid classic, the Delta variant negates that.
- abduhl 5y ago
  Was in person schooling shut down before or after the delta variant? Imputing a risk to behaviors/decisions that occurred before the risk manifested is a logical error.
  - __blockcipher__ 5y ago
    I'd also note that an even-more-infectious variant of SARS-2 (Delta), in which children transmit just as readily (I haven't seen proof of this whatsoever but let's accept it for the sake of argument), and which largely-but-not-completely bypasses vaccine immunity (this is definitely the case; the Israel data confirms that the approach of vaccinating against just the spike protein was an incredible failure given that a couple point mutations on the spike like we saw with Delta was enough to drop vaccine efficacy to <=40% against infection), should tell us that trying to run away from this virus or wage war on it is folly and that, yes, your kid is going to be exposed to COVID, and that's okay. This is a bit of a side tangent but it never ceases to amaze me that the supposed asymptomatic spread of COVID (which was never proven; pre-symptomatic was but asymptomatic appears to have been a myth) was used as a justification for the necessity of lockdowns and the like, when really it should have been a screaming indicator that we should stop trying to aggressively contain the damn thing and just focus on population health and focused protection of the severely vulnerable. By the same logic (this is me basically restating my first paragraph), the idea that a variant that infects kids more easily or as was argued above that kids can transmit more easily, is a sign that we should stop trying to close schools, not that we need to double down. And regardless it seems like people seem to have forgotten that we're now in late September 2021. It's almost been two years of this now. Hell, I remember catching major flak here (on a different account) in early-mid 2020 for saying that we were going to stay locked down until they coerced everyone into being vaccinated, and at the time I was called a conspiracy theorist; nowadays people act like I'm crazy for not wanting vaccine passports, and will turn around and act as if we all collectively knew they were going to happen from the beginning! More than 18 months of this, a third-world child starvation / missed medical appointment crisis, a massive worldwide uptick in missed preventative care like cancer screenings, a >30% rise in y/y fentanyl overdose deaths in the US alone, and yet people still insist on more of these ineffective and outright authoritarian measures?!
    - gotoeleven 5y ago
      Why is it that our important institutions are no longer run by serious people? These aren't the same people who won WW2. I don't think the US has ever had a leadership class that was more corrupt, incompetent or arrogant. Our experiment with government-by-hysterical-outrage-mob continues.
      - david38 5y ago
        How do you think WWII was run? For one, the government gave an order and mostly people followed. If the gov in WWII said to vaccinate, you would. Two, WWII was mostly run by letting others (Europe) take most of the heat and then simply outspending everyone when nobody had any money left. America is slow to act, but builds incredible momentum. Same playbook here. We delayed, but when we did act we put so much money on the table that we leapt ahead of Europe in vaccinations. Today is nothing like WWII. The government can’t do anything without massive pushback. Also things are way more complicated and the level of care we expect from the government is 10x what it was 70 years ago.
    - strken 5y ago
      I was going to ask whether "largely-but-not-completely bypasses" was an exaggeration, but the Israeli data really does suggest 39% effectiveness[0]! Everywhere else seems to be at least 70% or higher, so I wonder what's going on? Should the Israeli variant still be considered delta if it's much more effective at getting around the mRNA vaccines? [0] https://www.gov.il/BlobFolder/reports/vaccine-efficacy-safety-follow-up-committee/he/files_publications_corona_two-dose-vaccination-data.pdf https://www.gov.il/BlobFolder/reports/vaccine-efficacy-safet...
      - truffdog 5y ago
        There was a version of the Israeli data that used the wrong denominator to calculate vaccine efficacy against Delta, and made things appear much worse than they were. I am unsure if this is that though, I have sort of lost track.
        5y ago
- rubyist5eva 5y ago
  Source?

My understanding is that the data indicate that children do not transmit Covid as easily as adults, so the situation is a bit more subtle than you seem to suggest here.

Gibbon1 5y ago

Only true of Covid classic, the Delta variant negates that.

abduhl 5y ago
Was in person schooling shut down before or after the delta variant? Imputing a risk to behaviors/decisions that occurred before the risk manifested is a logical error.
- __blockcipher__ 5y ago
  I'd also note that an even-more-infectious variant of SARS-2 (Delta), in which children transmit just as readily (I haven't seen proof of this whatsoever but let's accept it for the sake of argument), and which largely-but-not-completely bypasses vaccine immunity (this is definitely the case; the Israel data confirms that the approach of vaccinating against just the spike protein was an incredible failure given that a couple point mutations on the spike like we saw with Delta was enough to drop vaccine efficacy to <=40% against infection), should tell us that trying to run away from this virus or wage war on it is folly and that, yes, your kid is going to be exposed to COVID, and that's okay. This is a bit of a side tangent but it never ceases to amaze me that the supposed asymptomatic spread of COVID (which was never proven; pre-symptomatic was but asymptomatic appears to have been a myth) was used as a justification for the necessity of lockdowns and the like, when really it should have been a screaming indicator that we should stop trying to aggressively contain the damn thing and just focus on population health and focused protection of the severely vulnerable. By the same logic (this is me basically restating my first paragraph), the idea that a variant that infects kids more easily or as was argued above that kids can transmit more easily, is a sign that we should stop trying to close schools, not that we need to double down. And regardless it seems like people seem to have forgotten that we're now in late September 2021. It's almost been two years of this now. Hell, I remember catching major flak here (on a different account) in early-mid 2020 for saying that we were going to stay locked down until they coerced everyone into being vaccinated, and at the time I was called a conspiracy theorist; nowadays people act like I'm crazy for not wanting vaccine passports, and will turn around and act as if we all collectively knew they were going to happen from the beginning! More than 18 months of this, a third-world child starvation / missed medical appointment crisis, a massive worldwide uptick in missed preventative care like cancer screenings, a >30% rise in y/y fentanyl overdose deaths in the US alone, and yet people still insist on more of these ineffective and outright authoritarian measures?!
  - gotoeleven 5y ago
    Why is it that our important institutions are no longer run by serious people? These aren't the same people who won WW2. I don't think the US has ever had a leadership class that was more corrupt, incompetent or arrogant. Our experiment with government-by-hysterical-outrage-mob continues.
    - david38 5y ago
      How do you think WWII was run? For one, the government gave an order and mostly people followed. If the gov in WWII said to vaccinate, you would. Two, WWII was mostly run by letting others (Europe) take most of the heat and then simply outspending everyone when nobody had any money left. America is slow to act, but builds incredible momentum. Same playbook here. We delayed, but when we did act we put so much money on the table that we leapt ahead of Europe in vaccinations. Today is nothing like WWII. The government can’t do anything without massive pushback. Also things are way more complicated and the level of care we expect from the government is 10x what it was 70 years ago.
  - strken 5y ago
    I was going to ask whether "largely-but-not-completely bypasses" was an exaggeration, but the Israeli data really does suggest 39% effectiveness[0]! Everywhere else seems to be at least 70% or higher, so I wonder what's going on? Should the Israeli variant still be considered delta if it's much more effective at getting around the mRNA vaccines? [0] https://www.gov.il/BlobFolder/reports/vaccine-efficacy-safety-follow-up-committee/he/files_publications_corona_two-dose-vaccination-data.pdf https://www.gov.il/BlobFolder/reports/vaccine-efficacy-safet...
    - truffdog 5y ago
      There was a version of the Israeli data that used the wrong denominator to calculate vaccine efficacy against Delta, and made things appear much worse than they were. I am unsure if this is that though, I have sort of lost track.
      - 5y ago
rubyist5eva 5y ago
Source?