4 ms·

The UK will rejoin at some point, especially because the younger generation will demand it, but it will have to take a decade, more likely two, unless Brexit pr

The UK will rejoin at some point, especially because the younger generation will demand it, but it will have to take a decade, more likely two, unless Brexit proves to be an uncontroversial disaster and GB falls behind extremely. I wouldn't wish that on anybody. There is just too much national pride around this move, and the British political system is so thoroughly messed up that it will take one or two leadership generations for them to come to their senses. They can hardly manage the exit, the Reintegration would be even harder.

JetSetWilly 5y ago
> The UK will rejoin at some point, especially because the younger generation will demand it, but it will have to take a decade, more likely two, unless Brexit proves to be an uncontroversial disaster and GB falls behind extremely. I wouldn't wish that on anybody. It seems unlikely. I would say it is more likely that being outside the EU leads to more euroscepticism among the young. Perceiving the sharp end of EU incompetence - triggering article 16 without even informing Ireland - or malice, such as seizing vaccines and the whole propagandistic negative portrayal of the UK during the vaccine rollout in the EU - has already led many a former remainer to think that the EU is not the most fantastic of institutions. It is certainly true that there are many in the EU keen to paint every minor event as some sort of disaster for the UK. They will gladly ignore the wider context of the pandemic, of driver shortages in the EU as well, of this being a purely manufactured demand-side panic buy "shortage" - to gleefully jump up and down shouting about the UK being self harming and it is all 100% brexit. It really comes across as deceitful propaganda I am afraid - and people take note and the EU loses its shine bit by bit.
- alistairSH 5y ago
  I wonder how that Euro-scepticism among the young breaks across the UK's internal borders? Scotland (62% remain) and NI (56% remain) didn't want Brexit. Will that sentiment hold over the next 5-10 years, or will they slowly follow England and Wales in being anti-EU (both ~53% leave)? I always thought the Brexit vote should have required a supermajority.
  - tolien 5y ago
    The related question is how long the UK will survive with an SNP/SNP-Green government in Scotland and customs restrictions at the NI-GB border. For the same reason that time make an EU re-entry more likely (pro-EU sentiment skews inversely with age), the likelihood there won’t be a UK to rejoin also goes up.
newaccount2021 5y ago
in two decades, there will not be any "EU" to rejoin the next downturn will see more EUxits
danjac 5y ago
The tragic thing is that this is just a re-run of history, with the whole "first time tragedy, second time farce" ring. After the Suez Crisis in 1953 it was clear to the British establishment that the US would put its own interests first over its allies, and the UK was a busted flush as a world power. Without its empire its only future was as a "first among equals" in the European project. It spent the next two decades trying to get into the EU (or EEC as it was then) despite objections from Charles de Gaulle and domestic opposition on both sides of the aisle. But by the early 70s it was clear that Britain was not only no longer a world power, but was unable to keep the lights on. The Common Market - plus North Sea oil - was the lifeline. Now the UK is back where it was in the 70s, only this time the North Sea oil wells are running dry and it is out of the EU with no prospect of joining soon, having trashed relations with its closest neighbours.

JetSetWilly 5y ago

> The UK will rejoin at some point, especially because the younger generation will demand it, but it will have to take a decade, more likely two, unless Brexit proves to be an uncontroversial disaster and GB falls behind extremely. I wouldn't wish that on anybody. It seems unlikely. I would say it is more likely that being outside the EU leads to more euroscepticism among the young. Perceiving the sharp end of EU incompetence - triggering article 16 without even informing Ireland - or malice, such as seizing vaccines and the whole propagandistic negative portrayal of the UK during the vaccine rollout in the EU - has already led many a former remainer to think that the EU is not the most fantastic of institutions. It is certainly true that there are many in the EU keen to paint every minor event as some sort of disaster for the UK. They will gladly ignore the wider context of the pandemic, of driver shortages in the EU as well, of this being a purely manufactured demand-side panic buy "shortage" - to gleefully jump up and down shouting about the UK being self harming and it is all 100% brexit. It really comes across as deceitful propaganda I am afraid - and people take note and the EU loses its shine bit by bit.

alistairSH 5y ago
I wonder how that Euro-scepticism among the young breaks across the UK's internal borders? Scotland (62% remain) and NI (56% remain) didn't want Brexit. Will that sentiment hold over the next 5-10 years, or will they slowly follow England and Wales in being anti-EU (both ~53% leave)? I always thought the Brexit vote should have required a supermajority.
- tolien 5y ago
  The related question is how long the UK will survive with an SNP/SNP-Green government in Scotland and customs restrictions at the NI-GB border. For the same reason that time make an EU re-entry more likely (pro-EU sentiment skews inversely with age), the likelihood there won’t be a UK to rejoin also goes up.

newaccount2021 5y ago

in two decades, there will not be any "EU" to rejoin the next downturn will see more EUxits

danjac 5y ago

The tragic thing is that this is just a re-run of history, with the whole "first time tragedy, second time farce" ring. After the Suez Crisis in 1953 it was clear to the British establishment that the US would put its own interests first over its allies, and the UK was a busted flush as a world power. Without its empire its only future was as a "first among equals" in the European project. It spent the next two decades trying to get into the EU (or EEC as it was then) despite objections from Charles de Gaulle and domestic opposition on both sides of the aisle. But by the early 70s it was clear that Britain was not only no longer a world power, but was unable to keep the lights on. The Common Market - plus North Sea oil - was the lifeline. Now the UK is back where it was in the 70s, only this time the North Sea oil wells are running dry and it is out of the EU with no prospect of joining soon, having trashed relations with its closest neighbours.