Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future. YAGNI. It feels stupid to not have any pattern or theory or code reuse, but when there is in

Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future. YAGNI. It feels stupid to not have any pattern or theory or code reuse, but when there is insufficient data, the null hypothesis is the best guess. I think: have confidence that you're doing the right thing. Write the code in the most obvious way to do what's needed - the least theory, model, pattern. That will be easy to read - as documentation for later. Eventually, you may have seen enough of the problem (or part of it) to be confident you understand it. Then you can throw away and rewrite that part. Probably, even trying to adapt the old code is not worth it - more efficient to start fresh.