4 ms·

Stanislav Petrov, Officer Who Helped Avert Nuclear War on Sept. 26, 1983 (2017)

60 points by helloworld 5y ago

StanislavPetrov 5y ago
I'd be remiss if I didn't offer belated condolences for my namesake.
- BenPace 5y ago
  You might be interested to know how we're honoring him today in the rationality and effective altruism communities. We've set up big red buttons on each site that 100 core users of each site can use to 'nuke' the other site. If 1 of those 100 users enters their launch codes, the other site goes down. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EW8yZYcu3Kff2qShS/petrov-day-2021-mutually-assured-destruction https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EW8yZYcu3Kff2qShS/petrov-day...
  - hodgesrm 5y ago
    You might add Leonard Peroots to that list of honorees. I worked for him. I didn't meet Petrov but they seemed to have had a similar ability to sort through the fog. These are the people you want serving in the military. [0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leonard_H._Perroots https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leonard_H._Perroots
beebmam 5y ago
Seems like the world had close to another moment like this with Milley/Li over the recent presidential transition in the US. Is it going to require the use of nuclear weapons on a global scale before humans decide to abolish them? I think it's just a matter of time before politicians with a wish for mass death finally bring it to us.
- garmaine 5y ago
  The situation would be comparable is Trump actually ordered a nuclear assault, but he did not.
  - eganist 5y ago
    I mean, if we're going to go down that rabbit hole, we should call out the fact that the guy literally restrained the USCP from suppressing an insurrection while deploying lawyers to find ways to overturn a legally operated election, all while throwing his own vice president to the insurrectionists for his refusal to take part. Seems anyone trying to establish the stability of US democracy through backchannels was doing so in the face of the biggest known risk against the American democracy since the civil war.
    - garmaine 5y ago
      I’m not defending Trump. I’m just saying the nuclear situation wasn’t comparable to Petrov. Accuracy and precision matters. A general saying he would hypothetically disobey orders is quite different from actually doing so.
    - z3ncyberpunk 5y ago
      Biggest risk since the civil war.... You say that with the clown sitting at the helm now? You literally voted in a dementia ridden, child sniffing pedophile who is but a mere puppet. So thanks, you actually made worse than having Trump because now we have an even less clear picture of those in power. Your liberal bias is showing..
- retsibsi 5y ago
  > Milley/Li over the recent presidential transition in the US I'd genuinely like more info if I'm wrong about this, but wasn't that basically a case of one important person worrying about what Trump might do? Trump is among the last people I would be / was comfortable to have wielding massive destructive power. But 'dangerous person was in charge, causing concern he might do something catastrophic' is not really comparable to 'nuclear war only averted by relatively low-ranking individual holding back from following protocol'.
  - z3ncyberpunk 5y ago
    It was basically treason, since you want to overly simplify
  - On918OTFLz 5y ago
    True. But the point stands about why humans don't abolish them considering its one of the biggest threat to all humans. Reminds me of this, funny but makes you think :) - https://xkcd.com/1626/ https://xkcd.com/1626/
    - retsibsi 5y ago
      Oh I'm not at all comfortable about the status quo. (And I don't know why you apparently got insta-downvoted.) But I'm not sure how abolition is supposed to happen. I'm no expert, but it seems like the level of mutual surveillance required for a credible worldwide commitment to complete nuclear disarmament would be very difficult to achieve.
- hodgesrm 5y ago
  > Seems like the world had close to another moment like this with Milley/Li over the recent presidential transition in the US. No. There's no evidence there was any escalation or confrontation with China. It's at most like the situation with Nixon in 1974, though there's no evidence that Trump ever thought of using them. [0] I do think the problem people tend to underestimate is that American control of nuclear weapons may in future be less stable due to political strife. That is doubtless a troubling idea for some of our potential adversaries. [0] https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/11/donald-trump-nuclear-weapons-richard-nixon-215478/ https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/11/donald-tr...
howmayiannoyyou 5y ago
Posted to HN 2-3x per year. Here's the bottom line: 1. Remove rational human beings from the nuclear C2 loop at great peril. 2. Its hard enough for so-called super powers to C2 nuclear weapons, its even more difficult for developing nations with fewer resources & less public accountability & greater instability. Industrial accident prone nations should not have nuclear weapons, period. It is questionable if they should have nuclear reactors for peaceful purposes. Yes, I'm talking to you Iran. 3. It is almost a certainty there will be a mistaken or accidental nuclear launch in the next 15 years. And, finally, the Miley/Xi/Trump narrative is pure propaganda. China's alleged insecurity about a US first strike, requiring the CJoS to reassure them, is based on a laughable misunderstanding of how US nuclear launch works, either by the Chinese or the author of the leak - or both. China just announced its reversal of "no first strike" and Biden is POTUS, so Miley's attempts at reassurance must've fallen on deaf ears if you believe the story in the first place.
- spywaregorilla 5y ago
  > It is almost a certainty there will be a mistaken or accidental nuclear launch in the next 15 years. Given that we got through the whole cold war without this happening, I'm not so sure
- raldi 5y ago
  C2 stands for Command & Control
beirut_bootleg 5y ago
I didn't realize how cancerous a news website design and policy can be before I saw nytimes.com's cookie consent overlay over a paywall overlay over a truncated article page.
karakot 5y ago
https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&query=Stanislav%20Petrov&sort=byPopularity&type=story https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&que... why is it being posted again and again?

60 points by helloworld 5y ago

StanislavPetrov 5y ago

I'd be remiss if I didn't offer belated condolences for my namesake.

BenPace 5y ago
You might be interested to know how we're honoring him today in the rationality and effective altruism communities. We've set up big red buttons on each site that 100 core users of each site can use to 'nuke' the other site. If 1 of those 100 users enters their launch codes, the other site goes down. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EW8yZYcu3Kff2qShS/petrov-day-2021-mutually-assured-destruction https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EW8yZYcu3Kff2qShS/petrov-day...
- hodgesrm 5y ago
  You might add Leonard Peroots to that list of honorees. I worked for him. I didn't meet Petrov but they seemed to have had a similar ability to sort through the fog. These are the people you want serving in the military. [0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leonard_H._Perroots https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leonard_H._Perroots

beebmam 5y ago

Seems like the world had close to another moment like this with Milley/Li over the recent presidential transition in the US. Is it going to require the use of nuclear weapons on a global scale before humans decide to abolish them? I think it's just a matter of time before politicians with a wish for mass death finally bring it to us.

garmaine 5y ago
The situation would be comparable is Trump actually ordered a nuclear assault, but he did not.
- eganist 5y ago
  I mean, if we're going to go down that rabbit hole, we should call out the fact that the guy literally restrained the USCP from suppressing an insurrection while deploying lawyers to find ways to overturn a legally operated election, all while throwing his own vice president to the insurrectionists for his refusal to take part. Seems anyone trying to establish the stability of US democracy through backchannels was doing so in the face of the biggest known risk against the American democracy since the civil war.
  - garmaine 5y ago
    I’m not defending Trump. I’m just saying the nuclear situation wasn’t comparable to Petrov. Accuracy and precision matters. A general saying he would hypothetically disobey orders is quite different from actually doing so.
  - z3ncyberpunk 5y ago
    Biggest risk since the civil war.... You say that with the clown sitting at the helm now? You literally voted in a dementia ridden, child sniffing pedophile who is but a mere puppet. So thanks, you actually made worse than having Trump because now we have an even less clear picture of those in power. Your liberal bias is showing..
retsibsi 5y ago
> Milley/Li over the recent presidential transition in the US I'd genuinely like more info if I'm wrong about this, but wasn't that basically a case of one important person worrying about what Trump might do? Trump is among the last people I would be / was comfortable to have wielding massive destructive power. But 'dangerous person was in charge, causing concern he might do something catastrophic' is not really comparable to 'nuclear war only averted by relatively low-ranking individual holding back from following protocol'.
- z3ncyberpunk 5y ago
  It was basically treason, since you want to overly simplify
- On918OTFLz 5y ago
  True. But the point stands about why humans don't abolish them considering its one of the biggest threat to all humans. Reminds me of this, funny but makes you think :) - https://xkcd.com/1626/ https://xkcd.com/1626/
  - retsibsi 5y ago
    Oh I'm not at all comfortable about the status quo. (And I don't know why you apparently got insta-downvoted.) But I'm not sure how abolition is supposed to happen. I'm no expert, but it seems like the level of mutual surveillance required for a credible worldwide commitment to complete nuclear disarmament would be very difficult to achieve.
hodgesrm 5y ago
> Seems like the world had close to another moment like this with Milley/Li over the recent presidential transition in the US. No. There's no evidence there was any escalation or confrontation with China. It's at most like the situation with Nixon in 1974, though there's no evidence that Trump ever thought of using them. [0] I do think the problem people tend to underestimate is that American control of nuclear weapons may in future be less stable due to political strife. That is doubtless a troubling idea for some of our potential adversaries. [0] https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/11/donald-trump-nuclear-weapons-richard-nixon-215478/ https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/11/donald-tr...

howmayiannoyyou 5y ago

Posted to HN 2-3x per year. Here's the bottom line: 1. Remove rational human beings from the nuclear C2 loop at great peril. 2. Its hard enough for so-called super powers to C2 nuclear weapons, its even more difficult for developing nations with fewer resources & less public accountability & greater instability. Industrial accident prone nations should not have nuclear weapons, period. It is questionable if they should have nuclear reactors for peaceful purposes. Yes, I'm talking to you Iran. 3. It is almost a certainty there will be a mistaken or accidental nuclear launch in the next 15 years. And, finally, the Miley/Xi/Trump narrative is pure propaganda. China's alleged insecurity about a US first strike, requiring the CJoS to reassure them, is based on a laughable misunderstanding of how US nuclear launch works, either by the Chinese or the author of the leak - or both. China just announced its reversal of "no first strike" and Biden is POTUS, so Miley's attempts at reassurance must've fallen on deaf ears if you believe the story in the first place.

spywaregorilla 5y ago
> It is almost a certainty there will be a mistaken or accidental nuclear launch in the next 15 years. Given that we got through the whole cold war without this happening, I'm not so sure
raldi 5y ago
C2 stands for Command & Control

beirut_bootleg 5y ago

I didn't realize how cancerous a news website design and policy can be before I saw nytimes.com's cookie consent overlay over a paywall overlay over a truncated article page.

karakot 5y ago

https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&query=Stanislav%20Petrov&sort=byPopularity&type=story https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&que... why is it being posted again and again?