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The financial analysis is a little peculiar, even dangerous. The author spends effort calculating the return on the investments they could make if they sold th
by NovemberWhiskey 5y ago
The financial analysis is a little peculiar, even dangerous.
The author spends effort calculating the return on the investments they could make if they sold the home, but doesn't consider that the home itself is also an asset.
It also neglects the impact of tax policy. The investment returns made would be taxable from the first dollar, but the first $250K ($500K if married filing jointly) of capital gains on a home are not taxable.
It might be that the author is really doubtful about the prospects for the real estate market but it seems like that's an important assumption to document for this analysis.
The author also makes a significant error in conflating the average long-run returns on an investment with a safe draw-down rate. If, over a 20 year horizon (for example), you plan on withdrawing 7% of the initial investment annually against a 100% stock portfolio, you have a 50% chance that your investment is going to be completely gone before that point.
This is because of the volatility of stock returns and, in particular, the risk of substantial losses early in the investment period.
N.B. none of the above is financial advice, YMMV, consult a registered investment advisor etc. etc.