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For a mere 8 year timeframe, the predictions seem rather poor. It feels like there was such a push among people to have the forward thinking ideas that they ove
by Macha 5y ago
For a mere 8 year timeframe, the predictions seem rather poor. It feels like there was such a push among people to have the forward thinking ideas that they overestimated how much would change.
Looking back, the biggest changes between now and 2012 are:
* Git (and github) took over the world in the version control. Git was already the leader in 2012, but mercurial was doing ok and svn was still around to a much greater extent.
* Docker/Kubernetes and the container ecosystem. There was a guess here about app servers, but the poster seemed to thinking of PaaS platforms and Java app servers like Jetty more so. I guess you could say "serverless" is sort of in that vein, but it's far from the majority of use cases as the poster predicted.
* Functional programming ideas became mainstream, except in Go, which is a sort of reactionary back to basics language.
Overall though:
Good predictions:
* The IDE/editor space gets a shake up, though maybe not in the way any of the specific predictions guessed (the rise of VS code)
* Machine learning gets bigger
* Apple introduces a new language to replace Objective-C
* Some sort of middle ground to the dynamic/static divide (static languages have got local type inference, dynamic languages have got optional typing)
Bad predictions:
* No-code tools are still no further along mainstream adoption than 2012
* Various predictions that Lisp/ML/Haskell get more mainstream rather than just having their most accessible ideas cherry picked.
* A new development in version control displaces git
* DSLs, DSLs everywhere. DSLs for app development, DSLs for standard cross database NoSQL access,
- Zababa 5y ago> Functional programming ideas became mainstream, except in Go, which is a sort of reactionary back to basics language. I feel like there is also a return to basic imperative programming, with OO and functional where it makes sense.
- humanrebar 5y ago> * No-code tools are still no further along mainstream adoption than 2012 In 200 years, people will still be predicting the rise of no code solutions. If you are executing diagrams and schematics, you still have code. And the people maintaining that code are still coding. That is, they are coders. They're just working in a whole new stack that doesn't have git, diff, a variety of editors, open standards for encoding, etc.
- User23 5y agoThere's no such thing as no-code, it's just a question of the properties of the coding scheme. For example C.S. Peirce proposed a turing-complete "no-code" graphical logic (aka programming) language[1] in the 19th century. [1] http://www.jfsowa.com/pubs/egtut.pdf http://www.jfsowa.com/pubs/egtut.pdf
- agumonkey 5y agotrue, it's mostly a matter of altitude on the abstraction ladder, and not dealing with textual notation (it's all graphs underneath anyway)
- 8note 5y agoThis is true, and there are also coders today who's code does not run on computers, but in people's heads as the implementation of diagrams and schematics.
- Ericson2314 5y agoI've given Go lots of shit, but once generics land and are widespread, I suspect it will undergo a culture shift.
- qsort 5y agoI agree with your summary, but predictions are very hard (especially about the future). Except for the perpetual no-code and DSL memes, whether git would dominate as much as it did was pretty much up in the air in 2012. Same with functional languages. In 2012 the mainstream was what, Java 1.6? ML/Haskell was like a breath of fresh air, it's hard to understate how pure OOP a la early Java sucks. The fact that some functional features would become mainstream wasn't a given back then, if anything, that is the surprising turn of events.