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If it was a natural virus it is way, way more likely that it would have infected locals (farming bat guano for instance) than it would be discovered by a resear

If it was a natural virus it is way, way more likely that it would have infected locals (farming bat guano for instance) than it would be discovered by a researcher, then brought back to Wuhan, then leaked there. We also have no idea where the outbreak started, only where the first hotspot was.

inter_netuser 5y ago
Shi Zheng-Li/"Bat Woman" was sent to investigate a lethal outbreak with CFR of 50% in Yunnan in 2012 (!!!) "Lethal Pneumonia Cases in Mojiang Miners (2012)" https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2021.702199/full https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2021.7021... https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/bat-cave-solves-mystery-of-deadly-sars-virus/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/bat-cave-solves-m... Supposedly that's the closest related virus?
moralestapia 5y ago
>If it was a natural virus it is way, way more likely that it would have infected locals Not really, if they've been coexisting with the virus for a while they could be somewhat immune already. Also, you cannot compare the impact of an outbreak in a rural town in Laos vs. Wuhan with 11 million people and much more international commuters.
- thro1 5y ago
  >Not really, if they've been coexisting with the virus for a while they could be somewhat immune already. Worth to find out if there are places around Laos where level of COVID infections was lower and people may have such immunity ?
roelschroeven 5y ago
I'm not so sure about that, since Wuhan researchers regularly went to bat caves to collect virus samples. The bat caves being over 1000 km away from Wuhan, it seems not that unlikely that sars-cov-19 was brought from the bats to Wuhan on one of those field trips. Then again, it may very well be the case that Wuhan was not the place of the first transmission to humans, just the one were it first happened on a large enough scale to be noticed and recognized as something new. I think there's not enough evidence to dismiss any of the transmission routes.

inter_netuser 5y ago

Shi Zheng-Li/"Bat Woman" was sent to investigate a lethal outbreak with CFR of 50% in Yunnan in 2012 (!!!) "Lethal Pneumonia Cases in Mojiang Miners (2012)" https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2021.702199/full https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2021.7021... https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/bat-cave-solves-mystery-of-deadly-sars-virus/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/bat-cave-solves-m... Supposedly that's the closest related virus?

moralestapia 5y ago

>If it was a natural virus it is way, way more likely that it would have infected locals Not really, if they've been coexisting with the virus for a while they could be somewhat immune already. Also, you cannot compare the impact of an outbreak in a rural town in Laos vs. Wuhan with 11 million people and much more international commuters.

thro1 5y ago
>Not really, if they've been coexisting with the virus for a while they could be somewhat immune already. Worth to find out if there are places around Laos where level of COVID infections was lower and people may have such immunity ?

roelschroeven 5y ago

I'm not so sure about that, since Wuhan researchers regularly went to bat caves to collect virus samples. The bat caves being over 1000 km away from Wuhan, it seems not that unlikely that sars-cov-19 was brought from the bats to Wuhan on one of those field trips. Then again, it may very well be the case that Wuhan was not the place of the first transmission to humans, just the one were it first happened on a large enough scale to be noticed and recognized as something new. I think there's not enough evidence to dismiss any of the transmission routes.