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The pandemic was global, the huge spike in homicide was American. If you look at North and South America, the majority of countries had a decrease in homicide i
by rufus_foreman 5y ago
The pandemic was global, the huge spike in homicide was American. If you look at North and South America, the majority of countries had a decrease in homicide in 2020, most of the ones with an increase had a small increase. This includes countries with some of the highest homicide rates in the world. El Salvador had the highest homicide rate in the world in 2018, during 2020 it decreased almost 45%. El Salvador had a significant response to the pandemic including a 30 day curfew. If lockdowns cause homicide shouldn't it have showed up there, and in the rest of the world?
The only country in the Americas with an increase approaching the US was Chile with a 28% increase. What was going on in Chile?
"Political unrest in the country continued into 2020. Following a period of relative peace amid mobility restrictions associated with the coronavirus pandemic, violent clashes between security forces and protestors resumed a year after demonstrations over high living costs and extreme inequality had first erupted in the capital Santiago."
Chile also has drug trafficking homicides, not sure if that increased in 2020. The fact that two of the countries with massive increases in homicide rates had political unrest at the same time isn't proof, but it's a clue.
- furyofantares 5y ago> El Salvador had a significant response to the pandemic including a 30 day curfew. If lockdowns cause homicide shouldn't it have showed up there, and in the rest of the world? I don't think I'd expect that regarding El Salvador. What are the primary types of homicide in 2019 in the US and El Salvador? I can't actually figure this out using google, if anyone knows I'd appreciate it. My wild guess would be domestic violence in the US and organized crime in El Salvador but I could be wildly off. However, anywhere that organized crime is the dominant type of homicide then a spike in domestic violence isn't likely to have much effect on the overall homicide rate, but anywhere that domestic violence is the at the top, it would. I'm not really proposing this specific explanation btw, just saying it's the first thing that came to my mind. There's a ton of ways that 2020 differs from 2019, not just "defund the police", and I don't know how to detangle it at all.